This market resolves to the year in which a research paper that I authored or co-authored is first published in a legitimate, peer-reviewed scientific journal.
Since I don't have any direct control over whether my research passes peer review and is published, I reserve the right to bet on this market.
Additional context
I'm currently pursuing my M.A., and I plan on graduating around June of 2025 after writing my thesis. After that, I hope to enroll in a PhD program that August/September and complete that around 2029 or 2030. After that, I plan on searching for a job as a professor or researcher with an organization like NCAR or NOAA.
I don't think I can get a paper published in 2024 - way too early. I also don't think I'll get my first paper published after 2033 - either I've been published by then, or I've abandoned academia. I've left myself the option to add new answers, though, just in case.
Fine print
"Legitimate, peer reviewed" is somewhat subjective - I'll use common sense here, and count journals that have a good reputation among researchers in my field.
This resolves to the date the paper is published, not the date it is accepted - e.g. if a paper of mine is accepted in fall 2026, but not published until a 2027 issue of the journal, this market resolves as 2027.
A paper that I contributed marginal research to being published doesn't count - I must be listed as an author or co-author of the paper.
1,000@jgyou Not at the moment! I'll be starting work on my M.A. thesis very soon, but I'm also gonna be spending most of the rest of the year trying to settle on a topic with my advisor. There's a reason I doubt 2024 is a possibility (and I don't think 2025 is very likely, either, unless my M.A. thesis ends up publishable in a journal in some way.)
@evergreenemily It wouldn't be unlikely for you to have a preprint in 2025, but publication will come down to random factors such as speed of review etc. Is it usually a fast process in your chosen field?
@jgyou Didn't see this until now! I'm not entirely sure - it's a relatively small field and I don't know if that increases or decreases the speed on average.