This market resolves to the answer that contains the number of Republican U.S. House representatives who, if an impeachment vote is held in the House during Joe Biden's presidency, vote not to impeach Biden. If no impeachment vote is held during his presidency, this resolves N/A.

Additional context

Republicans have a 222-212* majority in the House as of September 2023. This means that only six Republicans need to vote against impeachment for it to fail. While the Republican Party has lost most of its moderate representatives, there are still a few, and some Republicans represent districts that backed Biden by a decent margin in 2020.

*One seat is vacant.

Fine print

The vote must be held while Joe Biden is the current President of the United States. This market closes on January 20, 2025, but the closing date will be extended to January 20, 2029 if Biden wins re-election.

If someone other than Joe Biden is sworn in as President and this market has not yet resolved because no impeachment vote has been held, this market resolves N/A upon the new President being sworn in.

This market only counts representatives who identify with the Republican Party at the time of the vote. If a representative leaves the party shortly before the vote, they don't count.

"Present" counts as a vote against impeachment for the purpose of this market.