This is the first in a series of markets I want to make about whether some high-profile, controversial-even-within-their-own-party representatives will be "primaried," i.e. lose their own party's primary election and therefore lose the chance to compete in the general election. Typically, this happens at least a couple times each election cycle.

This market resolves as YES if Lauren Boebert wins the Republican primary election in Colorado's third congressional district (CO-03) in the 2024 election cycle.

If the election is called in Boebert's favor by at least two of the Associated Press, Dave Wasserman ("I've seen enough" counts), and the New York Times, that satisfies the conditions for a YES resolution. This market also resolves as YES if she is winning a plurality or majority of counted ballots, and all of her primary opponents have conceded defeat. In the event of a closely-contested election, this market resolves YES if the final results from the Colorado Secretary of State certify that she won the election. If Lauren Boebert has no primary opponents, this market resolves as YES once the filing deadline in Colorado has passed on March 19, 2024.

This market resolves as NO if Lauren Boebert loses the Republican primary election in Colorado's third congressional district (CO-03) in the 2024 election cycle.

If the election is called for anyone other than Boebert by at least two of the Associated Press, Dave Wasserman ("I've seen enough" counts), and the New York Times, that satisfies the conditions for a NO resolution. This market also resolves as NO if she concedes defeat in the primary election. In the event of a closely-contested election, this market resolves NO if the final results from the Colorado Secretary of State certify that she lost the election.

This market resolves as N/A if Lauren Boebert resigns, dies, or otherwise vacates her office as a Representative before the primary election. It also resolves as N/A if she chooses to withdraw from the primary election for any reason. If something happens that delays or cancels the primary elections in Colorado or the United States as a whole, e.g. the collapse of the government, a civil war, an invasion, asteroids or something etc., this market resolves as N/A, and we all probably have bigger problems than prediction markets at that point anyways.

My assumption is that the congressional primary election in Colorado will take place on Tuesday, June 25, 2024, and that the polls will close at 7:00 PM MDT. This market closes when the polls do, and I will adjust the closing date if needed to make sure that is the case.