Will the Taliban's opium ban last for two more years?
11
Ṁ170Ṁ2kresolved Jul 27
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/06/talibans-successful-opium-ban-bad-afghans-and-world
The big question now is whether or not the poppy ban will be maintained for a second year.
Will it last for another two years? Resolves to expert consensus. Resolves N/A if the taliban loses power.
These criteria are a bit loose.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@jacksonpolack @mods pretty sure this is a yes. I combed through articles a while ago and found no suggestion of the ban having failed (opium cultivation ≤5% pre-ban-levels in 2023, a slight uptick in 2024, and then back to <5% of pre-ban in 2025), and LLM's seem to suggest the same conclusion
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