Will logged out browsing on twitter return within the next week?
39
332
750
resolved Jul 9
Resolved
NO
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predicted NO

I'm going with either no or n/a, probably no, because the literal meaning of 'browsing'. i might go with n/a if enough people agree with na

predicted NO

Any more thoughts on resolution?

predicted NO

@jacksonpolack listen to your heart ❤

Should resolve no imo

I'm not sure how this should resolve, because you can view individual tweets, but not the replies to them or peoples' timelines, while logged out

The title says 'browsing', and you can't do that logged out strictly but idk

predicted NO

@jacksonpolack I would consider that you need to be able to read multiple tweets at once to be browsing…

predicted YES

@jacksonpolack given your comment here, I assumed you are referring to viewing tweets: https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/will-twitter-start-working-for-me-i#hAIgtVDHoxrid7NjmrQE

bought Ṁ56 of NO

that's a different market though, and referred to browsing while logged in

predicted YES

Agreed, however I did my best to interpret what you meant with the available context. If you want to resolve to 50% that's fine with me, but resolving no seems wrong.

predicted YES

@jacksonpolack and @chilli, my browsing is clicking on links to Twitter from ACX/MR. My browsing needs are definitely filled by what I posted/what is possible now. Discovery seems to better describe being able to find new tweets once already on Twitter.

I haven't been able to view replies/retweets on Twitter since I started clicking links a couple months ago.

bought Ṁ40 of NO

I'd definitely push back on resolving the current state as YES or even 50%.

I'm pretty confident that a poll of random people would indicate that "browsing Twitter" should include not only I) being able to see individual tweets, but also II) being able to navigate through people's profiles.

As a NO-holder, my comment isn't that interesting I guess. But if @RobertCousineau pushes back further, I'm happy to do a meta-market, polling people, on it to put my money where my mouth is.

predicted NO

"I did my best to interpret what you meant with the available context." isn't a valid argument IMO, such interpretation on your side should be part of any probability exercise.

predicted YES

@HenriThunberg and as I'm sure you can see, I put a probability in the sentence immediately following that which you quoted.

predicted YES

@HenriThunberg Given that viewing comments, retweets, and likes has been impossible for the past several months, clicking on peoples profiles seems an arbitrary line to me. In casual conversation I would definitely say my Twitter use case (clicking links on MR/ACX posts) is browsing Twitter.

A poll on the proper interpretation of "browsing" sounds reasonable, however given you misread my comment above and insulted me, I do not trust you to make it in a fair fashion.

Would you agree that a someone should update towards "being able to view tweets resolves this market yes" given the comment I linked above?

predicted NO

@RobertCousineau Based off the linked reddit post, I think it's reasonable to assume that they mean "browsing" to mean "look at latest news/updates".

> I often browse on Twitter for latest news/updates on my work computer (not logged in) and for some reason it doesn’t allow that anymore.

predicted NO

@RobertCousineau In the absence of a human poll, I think asking GPT-4 is a reasonable proxy. I generated 10 responses, and in 9 of them it definitively says that it thinks this does not satisfy the user's original question (in the last one it hedged and didn't give a definitive answer).

Feel free to rephrase the question in another way.