Will LessWrong still be meaningfully active in 2026? *
Basic
7
Ṁ1672027
92%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If it's unambigious, resolves to that. If ambiguous, I'll ask people who are/were active on lesswrong which way they think it should resolve and resolve based on that.
This requires not just a few people posting every so often, or a lot of spam - it requires some sense of community and frequent high quality discussion, somewhat similar to what exists today.
I think the very vague criteria for this are fine, and anything more specific would probably just diverge from the spirit, but i'm curious if anyone has the other opinion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will LessWrong still be meaningfully active in 2030? *
86% chance
Will I post about working olympiad-prediction-system on LessWrong in 2024?
50% chance
Will Lesswrong get fewer visits in March 2026 than in March 2023?
32% chance
Will "The Learning-Theoretic Agenda: Status 2023" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
47% chance
How many people will fill out the 2024 LessWrong survey?
Will "Without fundamental advances, misalignment an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
46% chance
Will "Against LLM Reductionism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
21% chance
Will "Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
34% chance
Will LessWrong the website have shutdown by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will "How do you feel about LessWrong these days? [..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
13% chance