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MANIFOLD
Will anyone convince me the standard story of Las Vegas mass shooting is wrong? [3.5k NO limit order]
13
Ṁ1kṀ1.5k
resolved May 30
Resolved
NO

Inspired by a recent elon tweet, part of my 'big twitter claim' markets

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Paddock

"Stephen Craig Paddock[5] (April 9, 1953 – October 1, 2017)[6] was an American mass murderer who perpetrated the 2017 Las Vegas shooting.[7][8][9][10] Paddock opened fire into a crowd of about 22,000 concertgoers attending a country music festival on the Las Vegas Strip, killing 60 people"

There are many, many claims on the internet that there's something up with this case, none of details make sense, we should know more about his motives than we do, this suggests 'fed' or intelligence involvement

As far as I can tell, this is mostly people poorly understanding the facts of a case where we don't know as much as we'd like to, and then finding holes in their poor understandings and calling conspiracy as a result (and I haven't looked deeply into it). But I could always be wrong, some people I otherwise like think this is "weird", and I'm always interested in being proven wrong.

In order to resolve YES i'd have to significantly change my opinion on this. This would include being moving from 'quite sure nothing's up' to 'uncertain'. This doesn't mean I have to be uncertain that FBI/CIA were directing paddock (although that would qualify as a YES), but things including believing there's a >33% chance the police/feds fabricated / covered up a significant amount of evidence related to paddock, believing he had significant outside support in a way the mainstream media / police haven't reported, or similar is YES.

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@Gigacasting interested?

predictedYES

Interestingly this only really came onto my radar a few months ago when I found out that almost all of the possible search terms related to it on Google and YouTube were to be treated specially. This was part of a greater collection of leaks on controlled search terms but I found it curious why this event in particular seemed to be very focused on.

I am not sure about a conspiracy myself but I think the threshold from moving from 'quite sure nothing is up' to 'uncertain' is low given how little sense the official story seems to be. And then there are a range of other odd factors. If you are currently sure nothing is up do you believe all the facts of the current maintsream explaination?

predictedNO

I found out that almost all of the possible search terms related to it on Google and YouTube were to be treated specially. This was part of a greater collection of leaks on controlled search terms

social media moderation is usually done quite poorly - both in terms of goals, and in terms of effectiveness by their own internal, stated standards. So being on a search blacklist doesn't indicate much. And even if some ebil conspiracy theories are correct, there are gonna be a bunch more that are still wrong, and get suppressed for being hateful - even if the rothschilds run the world, the illuminati don't - even if paddock was FBI, sandy hook still wouldn't be, yet alex jones got slapped for it. There are so many different stupid things that have been censored on social media.

If you are currently sure nothing is up do you believe all the facts of the current maintsream explaination

I belive them to the extent I do most reporting - many people involved are trying to convey information, other people are trying to get attention or prove a point, and may hallucinate facts to those ends, and it all mashes together. But I do believe it's mostly correct. Are there any specific points you can start with, and argue the mainstream explanation is wrong on?

predictedYES

@jacksonpolack

Main points of suspicion off the top of my head were as follows;

  1. Apparent lack of motive

  2. Fire rate and ability to get guns into the room

  3. Isis claimed credit for it unusually.

  4. Eye witnesses like Brian Hodge reported multiple shooters.

  5. Still apparently had hundreds of rounds but killed himself before police arrived on scene.

  6. The weird body photos where paddock shot himself in the chest before shooting himself through his mouth

  7. Several random laptops with child porn found in the room with a supposed a connection to his brother.

  8. His brother claims that there is a conspiracy and is arrested in relation to said material.

  9. No brain abnormalities found.

I think it is reasonable to be skeptical about this event just given how bizarre it was. The lack of motive, differences in reporting and the whole nature of it seemed weird.

As far as any weird narratives go the one with the idea of it being a botched assassination attempt of the Saudi prince is interesting given that immediately afterwards he detained his political rivals and was at a resort and owned the top floors of the hotel.

In any case I'm also quite sure nothing is up but if you are already looking into it I wouldn't be surprised if you become uncertain hence how I'm betting... Definitely one of the weaker conspiracy theories out though.

If we are arguing the mainstream narrative;

  1. Perhaps there was a motive which was covered up. It might not have been politically appropriate so it was released as "no motive"

  2. Perhaps he didn't kill himself but was part of a group of people and was the "fall" guy. Evidence pointing to this is the report of multiple shooters and his unusual suicide and additionally how the floor was barricaded.

¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯

predictedNO

I think the lack of known motive and fire rate / getting guns in are just explained by him being a slightly more competent mass shooter than ususal. You don't need to broadcast your motive everywhere, and you can think about 'how to do this effectively'.

Isis claimed credit for it unusually.

Vague recollection that they've taken credit for a lot of events they weren't responsible for Googled it and apparently when they took credit for something in US/europe it was usually at least partially true. But - it's easy to imagine why they'd take credit for a few things they didn't do, and it's not clear why that would tie into a broader conspiracy. (Unless the conspiracy was to cover up an ISIS terrorist attack? which has its own many problems)

Eye witnesses like Brian Hodge reported multiple shooters.

Eyewitness accounts can be wrong. It's understandable, it's a new/scary/shocking situation and you don't know what's happening.

child porn

Also a vague sense: if you're ... whatever it is enough to shoot a bunch of people, you're likely to fall in with the kinds of internet cultures where CP isn't uncommon.

The weird body photos where paddock shot himself in the chest before shooting himself through his mouth

Unsure what this refers to?

His brother claims that there is a conspiracy and is arrested in relation to said material.

A family member claiming that also makes sense, people really like their family members and can be willing to defend them in absurd scenarios. And the child porn is explained either by luck or 'people tend to be similar to their family members'

No brain abnormalities found.

Which makes sense, most people who do crimes don't have visible brain abnormalities, the complex relationships that make up human thought aren't going to always be good and moral unless there's a bulk injury.