This is just on 'vibes', and I will intentionally ignore any inferences I might make from the person's political beliefs. It's specifically about my vibes. Also solely based on watching the debate. Note that this is about my impression, not my calculation of the average impression. I am a bit weird!

One reason you might think Vance might win is that he's clearly a weird smart guy who has a bunch of weird internet political opinions, and I enjoy that, even when I disagree with the opinions. I remember matt yglesias talking about how, though he finds vance's politics repugnant, his willingness to be weird makes his intellectual output interesting! On the other hand, that probably? won't come through at a VP debate, and his vibe is a bit off.

I won't trade on this, and won't give anything resembling private information / hints / etc to others who might trade on it.

This is (obviously) more of a 'fun' market than it is a serious and rigorous one.