This is just on 'vibes', and I will intentionally ignore any inferences I might make from the person's political beliefs. It's specifically about my vibes. Also solely based on watching the debate. Note that this is about my impression, not my calculation of the average impression. I am a bit weird!
One reason you might think Vance might win is that he's clearly a weird smart guy who has a bunch of weird internet political opinions, and I enjoy that, even when I disagree with the opinions. I remember matt yglesias talking about how, though he finds vance's politics repugnant, his willingness to be weird makes his intellectual output interesting! On the other hand, that probably? won't come through at a VP debate, and his vibe is a bit off.
I won't trade on this, and won't give anything resembling private information / hints / etc to others who might trade on it.
This is (obviously) more of a 'fun' market than it is a serious and rigorous one.
1,000
1.00My 'vibe' was mostly just that they were politicians doing politician things and they were about the same on that tbh, vance's 'weirdness', which I might've liked, didn't come through. But after pondering I suppose vance came out a little higher.
On the substance (which didn't matter for this market), I find it strange that trump and vance can't just strategically lie about the election. Even if they genuinely think it was stolen (and it wasn't), why not just not say that.
On the substance (which didn't matter for this market), I find it strange that trump and vance can't just strategically lie about the election. Even if they genuinely think it was stolen (and it wasn't), why not just not say that.
Because Fox lost the defamation suit and stopped echoing the voter fraud narrative. A lot of team Trump strategy is based on the plausible deniability around vague statements that will have msm talking about them. The voter fraud shit cant achieve that anymore since zero networks would try to carry water for them. Besides they can't tire their base with it before November cause they'll likely have to run it to the ground again after losing the EC.
I use the word 'strategy' loosely there since it's hardly by choice; but even Trump can gauge when the bullshit he spews gets the kind of feedback he gets off on and when not.
@Bayesian the whole wholesome expressive dad politician doesn't do anything for me, but it's not like it's bad or i mind it, so i think it's about even