This resolves to Vox Future Perfect's judgement of this question.

For those of you who don’t follow baseball — which, given the ratings for the 2023 World Series, is essentially all of you — Shohei Ohtani may be the best baseball player since Babe Ruth. That is not hyperbole. In 2023, Ohtani recorded a WAR stat of 10.1, a full 16 percent higher than the next-best player. (WAR means “wins above replacement,” and it calculates how many more game wins an individual player is worth than a totally average player at the same position. It’s basically the stat to rule all stats for Moneyball heads.) But what’s really amazing is that while Ohtani wasn’t the best hitter or best pitcher by WAR rankings, he was the only player in baseball who did both. He hits baseballs a long way, and he strikes lots of guys out. No one in baseball has done that since … Babe Ruth.

Shohei Ohtani at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California, on December 14, 2023.

Meg Oliphant/Getty Images

Those unique skills earned Ohtani the largest contract in sports history, with the Los Angeles Dodgers paying him $700 million for 10 years. (It also comes with some unique elements, including the fact that Ohtani will actually defer $680 million of that $700 million until after the 10 years of his contract is completed, which apparently is legal?) That sets him up for some sky-high expectations in the 2024 season.

Because of an injury last season, Ohtani won’t be able to pitch in 2024, which means he’ll be focused exclusively on hitting. He was already on pace for 51 home runs last year before his injury, which would have put him just behind the major league lead in that category. I think he has an excellent chance to lead the league in homers in 2024 — and without the distraction of pitching, I’d even give him an outside chance to break Barry Bonds (just ever so slightly steroid-tainted) major league record of 70. Go, Ohtani-san, go! —BW

Vox's prediction was "75 percent"