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I'm planning to resolve this NO. It looks like evidence has stopped coming out, and the consensus of reliable sources is that he isn't known to have such a diagnosis. A Hill article mentions the former secret service agent's claims, sourcing it to newsnation, but it's not obvious why a former agent would know. The NewsNation article says a senior congressional source confirmed it, but "NewsNation" doesn't appear to be a high-quality source. If you disagree and think this should remain open or resolve yes, comment below!

I did find one claim (two, depending how you count) that the shooter was diagnosed with depression. From this article

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/trump-shooting-thomas-matthew-crooks-motive/

Eckloff said Thursday, during NewsNation’s special report on the assassination attempt. “That’s interesting because that’s a very low number. In this case, it appears he (Crooks) was diagnosed with a major depressive disorder, but you tend to look at changes in behavior.” NewsNation independently confirmed Crooks’ diagnosis.

That article links to this one:

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/the-plot-to-kill-donald-trump/

In the video a former secret service agent (former, so wouldn't have access to inside information on this case) said "In this case, it appears he (Crooks) was diagnosed with a major depressive disorder"

The text below the video says "A senior congressional source told NewsNation that Crooks had a 'major depressive disorder diagnosis,'"

So I think the "senior congressional source" mentioned in this article is how they "independently confirmed Crooks’ diagnosis" as they stated in the other article, which doesn't seem like a very authoritative source. I'd imagine that congressional source heard about the internet search for "major depressive disorder" and incorrectly repeated that as a diagnosis, but I figured I'd post this here in case it would affect the decision of when to resolve this market.

I can't find any other claims that he was diagnosed. Mostly there are just mentions of the "major depressive disorder" search. Some sources explicitly say that there's no evidence of a formal diagnosis.

@jacksonpolack Do you reckon this can resolve soon?

So I initially set the close date to be a week after market creation, and a week seems too short. I think I'll wait another week after that, which is a few days from now, and then evaluate if more information's likely to come. I'd be interested to hear arguments either way on how long I should wait to resolve. I'd currently guessing it's unlikely new information will come

I second @na_pewno's comment that a mental illness diagnosis ought to be pretty easy for an investigation to find. Less relevant details have been reported on, so it's hard to imagine an unreported diagnosis. But no harm in waiting longer.

I think the official report will appear on December 23 or so:

https://manifold.markets/uair01/when-will-the-official-report-about?r=dWFpcjAx

I don't see how he could have a diagnosed mental illness that the FBI wouldn't have found out about or informed us about yet. There would be a medical record, his parents would know. Even in the case of some kind of confidential diagnosis, FBI should be able to get to it. Am I missing something?

NYT is reporting that someone on a call with Congresspeople looked up depression, “The person on the call singled out some of the searches on one of his cellphones –– the device he left in his residence –– saying that he had looked up "major depressive order."”

Searching for something seems pretty far from “diagnosed” but yeah possible that this indicates a diagnosis is out there and not yet reported on

Do specific mental disabilities count as mental illnesses? As in, would this market resolve YES if he was diagnosed with dyslexia, ADHD, OCD, or some other mental disorder?

[EDIT: Maybe I shouldn't lump even those in the same category, since some of them can be treated with medication and others cannot. So, 3 categories then:

• mental disabilities (cannot be treated with medication)

• mental disorders (can be treated with medication, but people are permitted to refuse treatment without any real negative stigma associated with going untreated)

• mental illnesses (treatment of some kind is usually mandated)

How does this market resolve for each of these categories?]

Again not binding in case I've made a mistake, but sources appear to consistently not describe ADHD and dyslexia as mental illnesses, and describe OCD as a mental illness.

I believe mental disabilities are not considered mental illnesses, and your category of 'mental disorders' is very broad and includes things that both are and aren't.

Mental illness and mental disorder are often used interchangeably. The American Psychiatric Association (APA), which makes the DSM-5 (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders), uses the term Mental Disorder, and considers the following as such (also note the caveat in point 5 in the second list):

(Disclaimer: Perplexity.ai generated these lists).

Mental disorders/illnesses:

1. Neurodevelopmental disorders (e.g., autism spectrum disorder, ADHD)

2. Schizophrenia spectrum and other psychotic disorders

3. Bipolar and related disorders

4. Depressive disorders

5. Anxiety disorders

6. Obsessive-compulsive and related disorders

7. Trauma- and stressor-related disorders

8. Dissociative disorders

9. Somatic symptom and related disorders

10. Feeding and eating disorders

11. Elimination disorders

12. Sleep-wake disorders

13. Sexual dysfunctions

14. Gender dysphoria

15. Disruptive, impulse-control, and conduct disorders

16. Substance-related and addictive disorders

17. Neurocognitive disorders

18. Personality disorders

19. Paraphilic disorders

Not mental disorders/illnesses:

1. Neurological disorders: Conditions like epilepsy, Parkinson's disease, and multiple sclerosis are considered neurological diseases rather than mental illnesses, although the distinction is becoming less clear as research progresses.

2. Normal emotional responses: Temporary feelings of sadness, anxiety, or stress in response to life events are not considered mental illnesses unless they meet specific diagnostic criteria for duration, intensity, and impact on functioning.

3. Cultural or religious beliefs: The DSM-5 emphasizes the importance of considering cultural context when making diagnoses. Beliefs or behaviors that are normal within a person's cultural or religious background should not be misdiagnosed as mental disorders.

4. Socially deviant behavior: The DSM-5 specifies that conflicts between an individual and society are not mental disorders unless the deviance or conflict results from a dysfunction in the individual.

5. Intellectual disabilities: While classified in the DSM-5 under neurodevelopmental disorders, these are generally considered distinct from mental illnesses.

6. Substance use: While substance use disorders are included in the DSM-5, substance use itself is not considered a mental illness unless it meets specific criteria for a disorder.

I was trying to come up with a simple framework for this market, because it's clear that it's not going solely by inclusion in the DSM-5 (which uses the term "mental disorders" and includes basically everything imaginable as a disorder). As far as I'm aware, the DSM-5 doesn't use the term "mental illness" at all.

I'd have proposed a specific external source instead, if I knew of any that seemed exhaustive. Do anxiety disorders count as "mental illnesses"? What about anorexia? A specific phobia? Depressive disorder? Those are often considered mental illnesses (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK519704/), but I could see the argument for excluding some of them from this market.

Knowing that OCD counts, but ADHD doesn't, gives me a decent approximation of what is meant here though. I feel safe assuming that insomnia doesn't count, for example. So I'm good with answers for just the above examples, since I realize specifying for every disorder would be impractical.

His father is a professional mental health counselor 🤣 https://npidb.org/doctors/behavioral_health/professional_101yp2500x/1659583094.aspx

From the NYT, “F.B.I. officials said the gunman did not appear to have a history of mental illness”

@traders Adding a subsidy to incentivize accuracy.

Does autism classify as 'mental illness' for this question? He supposedly had high academic achievements (won a math & science award)

Not binding in case I've made a mistake, but I don't think so, sources seem to consistently say it isn't.

Also I don't think autism is associated with high IQ in general

American Psychiatrist Association classifies autism as a mental disorder, i.e., a mental illness.