2030: % of "working age adults w/ serious difficulty remembering, making decisions" in US Census Survey? (long covid)

300Ṁ571

2031

ALL

< 3% (pre-2020 trend fit)

>=3%, <4.5% (roughly current range)

47%

>= 4.5%, < 7% (post-2020 trend fit)

43%

>= 7% (significantly worse than post-2020 trend)

This is a market based on a poll by Dan Luu:

I wonder what the long-term rate of "working-age adults who report 'serious' difficulty remembering, concentrating, or making decisions" is going to be.
This rate had been declining basically forever for the obvious reasons, but this has turned around since 2020, also for the obvious reasons.

Implying the cause is Long Covid

The highest option is winning his poll.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

2 Comments

11 Holders

30 Trades

Sort by:

bought Ṁ1 YES

It might be interesting to see if there's any corellation with smart-device usage.

This question may be affected by proposed changes to the survey questions, as the proposed revised survey questions move to graded responses instead on binary answers. (Still in feedback phase but seems likely to happen).

https://apnews.com/article/census-disabilities-american-community-survey-27ef3422add65df9d6b1ad8798fefede#

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/director/2024/02/next-steps-on-acs-disability-questions.html

People are also trading

Will irreversible long-term health consequences of Covid-19 be shown to affect 20%+ of the world population before 2034?

42% chance

In 2030 will long-lasting side effects in over 30% of the US be linked to the Moderna AND Pfizer COVID vaccinations?

3% chance

People are also trading

Related questions