
2030: % of "working age adults w/ serious difficulty remembering, making decisions" in US Census Survey? (long covid)
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2%
< 3% (pre-2020 trend fit)
13%
>=3%, <4.5% (roughly current range)
48%
>= 4.5%, < 7% (post-2020 trend fit)
36%
>= 7% (significantly worse than post-2020 trend)
This is a market based on a poll by Dan Luu:
Implying the cause is Long Covid

The highest option is winning his poll.
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This question may be affected by proposed changes to the survey questions, as the proposed revised survey questions move to graded responses instead on binary answers. (Still in feedback phase but seems likely to happen).
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/director/2024/02/next-steps-on-acs-disability-questions.html