Resolution
Resolves YES if on or before the specified date, Ukraine reclaims control of the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building, located at address:
Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500
according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise NO.
For this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control).
Background
Bakhmut has been a focal point of ongoing fighting in the Ukraine-Russia war, and recent reporting shows Ukraine has driven back Russian forces in some areas around Bakhmut: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-russian-forces-bakhmut-counteroffensive-prigozhin-uk-missiles-rcna83890
Resolution details
Resolution will be determined by the shading of the map over the center of the dot shown on the ISW interactive map when you search the address specified above.
Resolution will be based on the date shown on the ISW maps. In case it is unclear, the date of a map update will be determined based on the archived maps on the daily Ukraine conflict updates at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates.
See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.
The question will resolve solely on ISW maps, except in the unlikely event that ISW maps become unavailable, in which case resolution will instead be based on one of the following, in order of precedence: https://deepstatemap.live/en, https://liveuamap.com/, or reliable media reporting, with a deadline of end of day Ukraine time.
Related: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/
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@jack I am wondering if we could get a better question measuring the counter-offensive's progress. Ukraine is attacking in multiple directions. And AFAICT it makes little sense to take Bakhmut itself, although they are trying to make progress near it. If they are going to take Bakhmut, they'd probably encircle it first rather than doing what Russian forces did to capture the city.
For the Russian government Bakhmut had some kind of symbolic value, "something being done". Bakhmut was something they could present on TV as achieving intermediary war goals. Whereas Ukraine seems to be acting more carefully and rationally.
Perhaps a better question could be something like "How many square km of territory will Ukraine liberate by X date"? Or "By X date will Ukraine liberate more territory than lose"?
What do you think?
@42irrationalist Totally agree, I don't think Bakhmut is a focus of the counteroffsensive at all and this isn't meant to measure that. It's just that it's been in the news a lot and I already had a question template for it.
I think it would be much more interesting to look at the progress in the southeast, but I don't know what the best locations to ask about are.
@jack Off top of my head, https://deepstatemap.live/ provides some stats, though sometimes there seem to be a bit of discrepancy between different days. Compare these two for example. I'd expect "Occupied until February 24, 2022" to stay constant, but it seems vary a bit (these fluctuations might end up being critical for question resolution).
Perhaps one way to explain these fluctuations is bits LPR/DPR territory changing control but I don't actually see any changes on the actual map, so I'm a bit confused here.
