Will Ukraine hold western Bakhmut on May 31?
57
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
NO

Resolution

Resolves YES if on May 31, Ukraine controls Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - search coordinates 48.5929662N,37.958617E on this map to show the specific location. Otherwise NO.

For this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control).

Note: this question resolves based on control on the specified date only. (For example, if Russia takes control and then Ukraine retakes control and holds it on the specified date, the prior Russian control doesn't affect resolution. The question is written this way because Ukraine has recently retaken some ground near Bakhmut.)

Resolution details

Resolution will be determined by the shading of the map over the center of the dot shown on the ISW interactive map when you search the coordinates specified above.

Resolution will be based on the date shown on the ISW maps. In case it is unclear, the source of truth will be the date of the map updates on the daily Ukraine conflict updates at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates.

See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.

The question will resolve solely on ISW maps, except in the unlikely event that ISW maps become unavailable, in which case resolution will instead be based on one of https://deepstatemap.live/en, https://liveuamap.com/, or reliable media reporting, with a deadline of end of day Ukraine time.

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NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHardbought Ṁ400 of NO

I don't expect this to become relevant but the title says May 31 and the description says May 30.

jack avatar
Jackpredicted NO at 0.2%

@NamesAreHard Thanks, typo. I meant May 31, good thing it didn't matter.

Akzzz123 avatar
AKpredicted NO at 11%
EisDidis8s avatar
Eis Didis8s

I have a large YES stake which I expect to lose. ISW contradicts other sources and has nothing to do with reality.

In reality once the hospital goes orange you will have to use another map because Russia nowhere near has definite control over the city. The battle has stagnated and will remain indecisive for years until a negotiated settlement is reached.

There is no military question here, just politics and map coloring.

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Youngpredicted YES at 45%

@EisDidis8s What would you say is the reality of the situation? Also why not sell your yes stake?

EisDidis8s avatar
Eis Didis8s

@NathanpmYoung the reality is its just some alcoholics walking around in military uniforms, the front line is arbitrary and no real combat is occurring.

If you want more political and longer term markets on ukraine I have several in my real account in the like.

Fivelidz avatar
Five lidzpredicted YES at 12%

@EisDidis8s mate, it says you are banned? Was going to look at the markets

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