Will there be a periodic participation bonus by mid July?

Ṁ1.5K

Ṁ100

resolved Jul 16

Resolved

ALL

Resolves YES if there is any form of periodic M$ payout/subsidy to users for participation by 7/15. NO if not. Examples could be a daily login bonus, or a daily M$ amount that you can use on bets or creating markets. For it to count, the bonus must be available to all users (e.g. not just new users). Daily free markets would count too (they were just removed) - but I will not resolve YES if the change to remove them is temporarily reverted. If daily free markets are available on 7/15, resolves YES. If any new feature providing a periodic participation bonus is implemented, resolves YES immediately. My trading policy: I will trade on this market even though the resolution criteria are somewhat ambiguous, because I want to correct the initial 50% probability and not burn my M$100 creation cost. I would much prefer if this set of problems were solved - see https://manifold.markets/group/free-markets/discussion

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8 Comments

15 Holders

37 Trades

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predicted NO

I do not think the author rewards count for this market's criteria, because they are based on other people participating in your market, it's not "free" mana that you get just from _you_ participating on Manifold. As far as I can tell, everyone trading on this market is betting consistent with this.

predicted YES

Ah, i have completely misunderstood then. For me the question was just asking about periodic _participation_ bonus, so it would resolve yes: you get a bonus periodically if you are participating in the way that manifold wants you to. But I also understand why it would resolve no

predicted NO

@JoyVoid Hmm it's true that it's a bonus for authoring questions, but I think it's similar to author fees - both of those are incentives, but they are not like the daily bonuses I was thinking of - in particular, you get more rewards the more markets you create. I don't really see a reason the new author bonuses would count without also counting the author fees. (It's true that the rewards are based on daily bettors, but I don't think that's a significant difference.)

predicted NO

I guess the new bonuses are substantially larger than the author fees in most cases. And they are a subsidy provided by Manifold, not coming from other users. I could be convinced to treat it as a partial yes (resolve prob), but I'd like to hear what people think.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@jack I don't think they should count. Yes they reward users for posting high quality questions that receive engagement, but this is specifically meant to not be a "participation bonus".

@SirSalty Yeah that makes sense. My intent was for features similar to https://manifold.markets/ian/what-will-the-daily-stimulus-be-cal to count here, and it doesn't seem to me like the creator bonuses count as a participation bonus.

Also I notice that since the creator bonuses were added on 7/5, nobody commented here saying it should resolve YES (other than when I started this discussion), and everyone who bet from that point to when this discussion started bet down.

Deciding to resolve NO based on this discussion. Thanks for adding your thoughts.