Resolves YES if a 6th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place on or before the specified date (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.
A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. (Exploding on the pad does not count.)
"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.
Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count.
1,000
3.00Arbitrage with 4 or more in this market. 6th starship launch would be 4th this year https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-w-01827009d557
@wilsonkime also in these markets:
https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-6-happen ("before 2025-01-01"),
https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-there-be-x-or-more-starshipsup
("4"),
https://manifold.markets/ManoSamy/for-flight-6-select-all-that-spacex ("flight 6 before the end of 2024"),
https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/how-many-starship-launches-will-the-8514acdeca8c ("4-6" and reverse "1-3")