Resolves YES if the next elected Speaker of the House is not a member of the House of Representatives, otherwise NO.
Context: As per Wikipedia: "The Constitution does not require the speaker to be an incumbent member of the House of Representatives, although every speaker thus far has been."
Unelected or temporary Speakers (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore) will not count toward resolution
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@DanMan314 Thanks - I figured someone must have made a market on it, but my search terms failed to turn it up!
@DylanSlagh If a powerful member can't rally enough support, it would be highly surprising if a non-member could. Also, base rates are against it.
@jack The situation is unprecedented so base rates don't mean much. A respected name from outside might be just what the house needs to pull together the two conservative factions. Although I agree it's very unlikely.
@DylanSlagh I was about to comment something about that. However, even though the situation is unprecedented, I still think the base rates are relevant - obviously we have to adjust our confidence based on the situation, but there is clearly still a strong prior that the next Speaker will be a member.