Will the Fed make an emergency unscheduled rate hike or cut in 2024?
Will the Fed make an emergency unscheduled rate hike or cut in 2024?
59
110Ṁ3827resolved Jan 1
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Resolves YES if in 2024, the Fed changes the fed funds rate outside of one of their scheduled meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
See the red highlighted actions in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market_Committee_actions#Historical_actions for historical examples - the most recent was an emergency rate cut at the beginning of the Covid pandemic.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html "Traders now see a roughly 60% chance of an emergency quarter-point cut within one week." !
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.