Will another US bank be shut down by the FDIC in May? (After First Republic)
66
725
11k
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if after First Republic Bank's collapse on May 1 and before June 1 (eastern time), another US bank is placed into FDIC receivership according to https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/.

Background

The ongoing banking crisis has caused the collapse of several large regional banks including Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank, and several other regional banks appear to be on shaky footing with large stock price declines in the last few weeks.

https://apnews.com/article/pacwest-deposits-fed-regional-banks-e08b80e8f9f321c881a8b946172b1cdb

Uncertainty continues to pummel the banking industry, despite assurances from financial regulators and bankers such as Jamie Dimon this week that the worst of the recent crisis is over and the health of the banking system remains strong.

Bank shares have sold off on Wall Street this week following the government seizure and subsequent sale of First Republic Bank to JPMorgan. It was the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history and the third failure of a midsize lender in two months.

Related question on whether contagion will affect the biggest US banks:

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soldṀ47,295NO

@Mira You are going all in on the letter market?

bought Ṁ40,000 of NO

@AlexbGoode yes, and it worked out.

predicted YES

I'm showcasing this market because the ongoing banking crisis is very important to the global economy and the prospect of a potential recession, and it's an easy-to-understand question that isn't straightforwardly tracked on the financial markets.

predicted YES

I also created and linked some related questions on whether contagion will affect the biggest US banks:

bought Ṁ50 of YES

https://www.barrons.com/articles/pacwest-western-alliance-regional-bank-stock-news-f3f9eaeb

PacWest Bancorp plunged nearly 42% to a new low before trading was halted Thursday, despite comments from its officials that tried to assuage customers and Wall Street. And another regional bank, First Horizon, was having its own troubles after it called off a merger.

bought Ṁ60 of YES

Sounds like today they announced 9.5% withdrawal over the last week, though everything appears to be paywalled.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

do YES holders have any specific banks in mind? first republic was noted as in trouble when SVB collapsed

predicted NO

@jacksonpolack The bank stocks that have fallen this week are good ones to watch: PacWest and Western Alliance are some of the bigger names.

predicted YES

@jack First Horizon just tanked.