Will a popular yes/no market have at least M$5000 liquidity pool at end of June?
Jun 30
M$330 bet
At a semi-random time on 6/30, I will check the first 12 open markets by 24 hour volume, and find the largest liquidity pool among the yes/no markets. Resolves YES if >= M$5000, NO if less. Resolves N/A if liquidity pool data is no longer available for some reason. Note that this will still resolve yes/no even if liquidity is changed to something like uniswap v3 or limit orders, as long as the liquidity pool size still reflects the amount of funds available to execute market orders in either the up or down direction. (Free response markets are excluded because the pool size shown for DPM markets is different than for CFMM. Using a semi-random time is intended to reduce the incentive for someone to inject a ton of liquidity into some market right at the close time to game this market. I promise not to choose the time in a way that is intended to influence the outcome).
Resolves NO. Currently the largest liquidity pool as per the resolution criteria is M$1,250 on https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-273301020824
Matt P is betting NO at 57%
Decent probability this is whalebait - someone who bets yes on this just comes in and drops massive liquidity on a popular market or two for the day.
Jack is betting YES at 72%
@MattP Yeah, even with the semi-random time that's definitely a possibility, but at least then they have to commit the liquidity for a day or two. I wouldn't mind that outcome, I do think encouraging more people to try providing liquidity (now that you can also withdraw it) seems good. Also, to be transparent, it's certainly possible I would end up contributing to a YES resolution - I have already started injecting liquidity on some markets now that it's much less of a guaranteed loss.
Martin Randall bought M$10 of YES
@MattP they can inject liquidity on a "will I resolve this yes" market at no risk.