What will the next peak in US daily Covid case count be (as a fraction of 1M)?
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2
Ṁ102
resolved Sep 1
Resolved as
13%

Covid daily case counts are currently rising due to the more infectious Omicron subvariants. At the next peak, what will be the 7-day moving average?

Resolves PROB to the peak 7-day moving average US case count divided by 1M. (E.g. 200k resolves as 20%).

"Peak" will be loosely defined as a point higher than the previous and following month. I'll resolve using the CDC data at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases

The close date is not relevant to the resolution of this market and will be extended as necessary.

Close date updated to 2022-06-30 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-08-31 11:59 pm

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predicted NO

July 16 at a 7-day moving average of 130k cases qualifies as a peak by the criteria of being higher than the previous and following month. Resolves to 130k / 1m = 13%.

predicted NO
Case counts are still at a plateau, not a peak, and have gone up and down and exceeded the previous high-water-marks for the current wave.

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