What will the next peak in US daily Covid case count be (as a fraction of 1M)?
41%
chance
Jun 12
M$20 bet
Covid daily case counts are currently rising due to the more infectious Omicron subvariants. At the next peak, what will be the 7-day moving average? Resolves PROB to the peak 7-day moving average US case count divided by 1M. (E.g. 200k resolves as 20%). "Peak" will be loosely defined as a point higher than the previous and following month. I'll resolve using the CDC data at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases.