Resolves to the next UK Prime Minister's approval rating on https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/ (second graph from the top, using the Kalman smoothed graph) one year into their term. If their term lasts less than a year, resolves to their approval rating as of their last day in office.

For example, this would have resolved to 51% for Boris Johnson (July 24, 2020 was 1 year into their term), and for Liz Truss it would resolve to their approval rating on their last day in office, assuming they leave office as currently expected (currently, Truss's approval rating is 12%).

If this poll source is is no longer available at that time, I will work with other market participants to find a suitable alternative source for the approval rating polling.

Grouped questions