This market predicts whether GPT-4 will be able to solve an "easy" Sudoku puzzle before May 1, 2023.

Based on /Mira/will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to . The criteria here are the same, just with a shorter timeframe.

Resolves YES if:

• A fixed prompt is found that enables GPT-4 to reliably solve freshly-generated easy-rated Sudoku puzzles from any reputable Sudoku site, using only its language modeling capabilities and context as memory.

Resolves 50% if:

• A fixed prompt is found that enables GPT-4 to occasionally solve Sudoku puzzles.

Resolves NO if:

• No fixed prompt that enables GPT-4 to even occasionally solve easy-rated Sudoku puzzles using the specified conditions by the deadline.

Resolves as NA if:

• The market creator retains the right to mark this market as NA or to modify the rules within the first week for any reason or no reason. Otherwise, this market does not resolve NA.

Definitions:

• GPT-4 refers to either ChatGPT's GPT-4, or any model using the OpenAI Chat Completions API. "gpt-4" and "gpt-4-32k" are currently-known model ids, but anything labeled GPT-4 would count including the upcoming image support.

• Easy-rated Sudoku puzzle means a puzzle classified as easy by any reputable Sudoku site or puzzle generator. A newspaper that regularly publishes Sudokus would be a great candidate. The puzzles cannot be trivial, and publication for humans is intended to reject trivial puzzles. If there's a dispute about whether a puzzle generator gives trivial puzzles, I will hold a poll.

• Fixed-prompt means that everything except the Sudoku puzzle provided to GPT-4 remains the same. The user may provide GPT-4 with instructions, but these instructions must not change for each puzzle. A solution must be found within 50 turns. So a prompt encoding an exponential-sized backtracking algorithm would not be a solution, but one that encourages ChatGPT to try simple logical constraints would likely work. Multimodal support is allowed to be used. The human cannot give information to GPT-4 beyond the initial puzzle, so their inputs must be static. (e.g. just saying "continue" if ChatGPT runs out of output space and stops).

• Language modeling capabilities means that GPT-4 is not allowed to use any external tools, plugins, or resources to aid in solving the Sudoku puzzle. It must rely solely on its language modeling capabilities and the context provided within the prompt.

• Reliably means the prompt succeeds at least 80% of the time, on freshly-generated puzzles.

• Occasionally means the prompt succeeds at least 20% of the time, on freshly-generated puzzles.

• Terms can be adjusted within one week after market creation. After that, terms can only be refined to have narrower meanings or to have additional examples added.

Example Sudoku puzzles

• From Sudoku - New York Times Number Puzzles - The New York Times (nytimes.com) on March 28. 2023, "Easy"

21....487

8..3.2.91

9.5.71...

..759.61.

56...3..2

4.16..7..

.39..7...

7..1...26

1...65..9

Solution:

213956487

876342591

945871263

327594618

568713942

491628735

639287154

754139826

182465379