Can an author profit despite the Matt P's proposed scheme?
1
6
แน€507
resolved May 21
Resolved
YES
See https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-gurkenglas-convince-me-that-mu I will attempt to demonstrate this by example (and pay some fees for it, oh well)
Get แน€200 play money

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1แน€63
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predicted YES
I followed the steps of https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-gurkenglas-convince-me-that-mu#8c4wKMfosGnA8pLHLs5y except that this market was not free. Created market (not free - paid out of pocket) Bought $400 of YES Injected $400 of liquidity Resolved YES Made $63 of profit on the bet, and I believe I got my liquidity returned I think if it had been a free market, then it would have worked almost the same, but any remaining amount of the initial liquidity would have gone back to the platform instead of to me. So I think it would indeed have made a profit.
So wait, what actually happened in terms of total inputs and outputs? Is this correct? * you made a free market (it started at $100 liq, none injected by you * you injected $400 liquidity * you bought $400 of YES shares * you resolved YES and came away with $463 * you're down $400 total?

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