Will Pope Francis ever visit Argentina again?
Will Pope Francis ever visit Argentina again?
32
1kṀ54782035
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve YES if Pope Francis (Jorge Maria Bergoglio) visits Argentina again in his lifetime.
Jorge M. Bergoglio is Argentinian, and he is in a conflict with newly elected President Milei.
Please note, that the visit doesn't have to be official to suffice 'YES' revolution
Update 2025-26-01 (PST): - The term "in his lifetime" includes any visit by Pope Francis during his lifetime, even if he is no longer serving as the Pope at the time of the visit. (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
OK if he resigns then visits? Seems to be about the person, rather than specifically being in office, but I'd like to get it confirmed :))
predictedYES 1y
@HenriThunberg He would still retain his Pope title i guess, I would resolve YES then
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Pope Francis live to see Easter Sunday?
98% chance
Will Pope Francis live past the end of April?
92% chance
Will Pope Francis live to see the Ides of March 2026?
19% chance
Will Pope Francis abdicate?
15% chance
Will Joe Biden and Pope Francis meet in person in year 2025?
1% chance
Will Pope Francis and Benjamin Netanyahu meet in person in year 2025?
2% chance
Will Pope Francis die in office?
85% chance
Will Joe Biden and Pope Francis meet in person in year 2028?
1% chance
Will Pope Francis become a nonagenarian?
37% chance
Will Vladimir Putin and Pope Francis meet in person in year 2028?
1% chance