resolves YES if https://www.instagram.com/kanyewest/ says this account is not active
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Hey, I've checked the available info and comments below.
To me, it seems that:
- Instagram did not ban Kanye West, he has deactivated the account himself.
- Ye's account does not say "this account is not active" , but:
Both rule out YES and lead to NO resolution.
I'm not resolving this yet, opened to discussion on how to resolve it correctly.
And sorry for such rules, I should be more precise.
PS
- In December Instagram temporarily suspended Kanye from posting, but he was not banned.
- Market was correctly pricing all of that, until @Breezeice and @qumeric swinged the price
@itsTomekK I would agree that he's not been banned by Instagram, but looks to have deactivated his own account.
@jacksonpolack That’s not true, bans usually imply the entire account being shut down, not just preventing posting.
@jacksonpolack In this context tomek said “suspend from posting”. Whether or not they’re synonyms in isolation clearly the meaning is different in this context.
@itsTomekK On December 9th he was banned. Your market started on December 4th. Hence, resolve as yes he was banned. Agrees with title and description.
@itsTomekK I am following my arguments above, nothing suggests that Kanye was banned, only blocked from posting and then he deactivated the account himself.
Resolving as NO
Betting yes due to ban on Dec 9th
@Chad Tricky! I see that:
Instagram says that "the page isn't available".
Kanye says he deactivated the account. https://www.billboard.com/music/music-news/kanye-west-deactivates-instagram-1235310665/
In past news it looks like Kanye was banned on Dec 9th 2022? https://www.nme.com/news/music/kanye-west-banned-from-instagram-again-after-sharing-clip-of-new-song-3364340
I'm unclear why this market didn't resolve yes back then. Maybe that answer will shed some light on what the market should do?
Fortunately it looks like Tomek has a very small position in the market.
@MartinRandall didn't resolve earlier cuz presumably tomek wasn't active at that time, and the debate is whether the title supersedes the description in case of a conflict (of literal interpret
@Chad If Tomek and traders just missed the earlier ban (which was after the market was created on Dec 1st) then the debate might be moot here, since the earlier ban was sufficient to resolve the market YES without ambiguity.
(I totally have opinions about the things you mention but maybe they aren't needed to resolve the market and we can discuss without mana being on the line)
@MartinRandall oh the earlier ban! I see a spike in the market around that time, but apparently no discussion took place? It's sort of weird. Anyway, that would've been enough.
But i think the current debate is about this recent ban (And yeah, i get that those 4 combinations of interpretation, spirit, description, title etc are important issues to be discussed separately) but in the context of this market, I'm of the opinion that the title was supposed to be extended by the description (can you confirm @itsTomekK ) instead of conflicting
@Chad well now I'm a bettor in the market! Too tempting if this should have been yes from the earlier ban.
@MartinRandall HAHAHA alright, let's call in @jack cuz why not (unless it's considered rude? idk, i'm not familiar with manifold etiquette)
@Chad I don't think it's rude, perhaps there should be a button for requesting a third party opinion, and maybe it should cost some mana to press it?
I expect Tomek has this, though. ❤
@MartinRandall maybe the reason it wasn't resolved earlier is Tomek wanted to see if the ban would stick. idk.
@NicoDelon No, I just wasn't active.
Indeed, the description was poorly written... maybe we should ask Kanye if he was banned or removed his account himself?
@itsTomekK No disrespect but if you continue being inactive on your markets (not the first time) and writing descriptions that lead to confusion, Manifold may have to consider removing your badge—I may create a market about it in fact.
@NicoDelon Good one! I'm not that active as a creator recently, but I'm doing my best with resolving markets correctly and on time. Sometimes I am confused with notifications and do not resolve markets suddenly after resolution, but in a trustworthy-ish manner.