Will FED pivot by Q4 2023? | Manifold Markets

1

Will FED pivot by Q4 2023?

40

closes Dec 31

50%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to "YES" if by December 31, 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meeting.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Sort by:

https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/will-the-rba-raise-rates-on-6th-jun?r=RGFuaWVsX01D

Will the RBA raise rates on 6th June 2023

Will the RBA raise rates on 6th June 2023

59% chance.

NexVeridianbought Ṁ230 of YES

ozanbought Ṁ19 of NO

Based mostly on impressions... I bet they'll need to be quite careful with this step. So I find the current estimate pretty high.

Curious about the arguments.

MPis predicting NO at 64%

@ozan The Fed is data dependent. If you have a view about the economy, what the Fed will do is going to resemble that.

Andrew Hartmanbought Ṁ50 of YES

I suspect they will, not necessarily because it's a good idea, but because they'll need to to limit the bleeding from debt service.

Manifold in the WildBot

Will FED pivot by Q4 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Nico D bought Ṁ40 YES from 47% to 50%

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ30 NO from 49% to 47%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ24/Ṁ100 NO at 49% (cancelled) 🤖

Tyler Coleman filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 YES at 51%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ46/Ṁ100 NO at 47% (cancelled) 🤖

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ15 YES from 49% to 50%

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ30 YES from 47% to 49%

Tyler Coleman filled limit order Ṁ35/Ṁ35 YES at 47%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ37/Ṁ100 NO at 44% (cancelled) 🤖

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ50 YES from 42% to 47%

Jim created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 20%

Super Tax Genius bought Ṁ10 NO from 43% to 42%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ25/Ṁ100 NO at 43% (cancelled) 🤖

Nico D bought Ṁ50 YES from 40% to 45%

Nico D bought Ṁ40 YES from 36% to 40%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ23/Ṁ100 NO at 36% (cancelled) 🤖

Nico D bought Ṁ50 YES from 32% to 37%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ17/Ṁ21 YES at 32% (cancelled) 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ87/Ṁ100 YES at 30% (cancelled) 🤖

WeatherIsNiceUpHere sold Ṁ364 YES from 55% to 19%

Nico D bought Ṁ20 YES from 54% to 55%

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ10 YES from 53% to 54%

Kevin Joines bought Ṁ20 NO from 55% to 53%

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ20 NO from 56% to 55%

Nico D bought Ṁ50 YES from 53% to 56%

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ25 NO from 55% to 53%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ23/Ṁ100 YES at 55% (cancelled) 🤖

Tyler Coleman filled limit order Ṁ30/Ṁ30 NO at 53%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 YES at 56% 🤖

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ30 NO from 57% to 54%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot created limit order for Ṁ7 YES at 54% (cancelled) 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ62/Ṁ100 YES at 57% (cancelled) 🤖

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ100 NO from 61% to 53%

Tyler Coleman filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 61%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ38/Ṁ100 YES at 63% (cancelled) 🤖

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ35 NO from 64% to 61%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 NO at 64% (cancelled) 🤖

Nico D bought Ṁ100 YES from 60% to 65%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 YES at 60% (cancelled) 🤖

Dan sold Ṁ76 YES from 63% to 59%

Wilson Kime sold Ṁ12 YES from 64% to 63%

Chris Billington bought Ṁ20 YES from 63% to 64%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 NO at 63% (cancelled) 🤖

Chris Billington bought Ṁ90 YES from 59% to 64%

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ15 YES from 58% to 59%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ25/Ṁ100 YES at 58% (cancelled) 🤖

jozef isreal bought Ṁ95 NO from 60% to 56%

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ15 NO from 62% to 60%

Chris Billington bought Ṁ15 NO from 63% to 62%

Nico D bought Ṁ50 YES from 60% to 63%

Related markets

Will FED pivot by Q3 2023?20%

Will FED pivot by Q2 2023?3%

Will FED pivot in 2023?50%

Will the Fed cut rates in 2023?50%

When will FED lower interest rates (so called "pivot")?

Will the fed funds rate peak above 5.5% in 2023?12%

Ilya X Valmianski

Will fed target rates be lower at the end of 2023 than they were in the beginning?16%

Will the fed balance sheet be bigger on april 10. 2025 than april 6. 2023?46%

Will the fed balance sheet be bigger on april 11. 2024 than april 6. 2023?49%

Metaculus BotBot

Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?23%

Will the US Fed funds rate be 7 or higher at the end of 2023?3%

Will the FED interest rate be above 5.25% by years end?38%

Economy 2023: Fed raises rates by more than 0.75 points?24%

Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%?29%

Will the fed balance sheet be over 8.5T$ on years end?50%

Chris Billington

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates in 2023?39%

What will the FED interest rate be on year end? (Times 5)23%

Will the RBA raise rates on the 4th July 2023?30%

Will the Fed stop-and-go?34%

Will the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing?20%

Related markets

Will FED pivot by Q3 2023?20%

Will FED pivot by Q2 2023?3%

Will FED pivot in 2023?50%

Will the Fed cut rates in 2023?50%

When will FED lower interest rates (so called "pivot")?

Will the fed funds rate peak above 5.5% in 2023?12%

Ilya X Valmianski

Will fed target rates be lower at the end of 2023 than they were in the beginning?16%

Will the fed balance sheet be bigger on april 10. 2025 than april 6. 2023?46%

Will the fed balance sheet be bigger on april 11. 2024 than april 6. 2023?49%

Metaculus BotBot

Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?23%

Will the US Fed funds rate be 7 or higher at the end of 2023?3%

Will the FED interest rate be above 5.25% by years end?38%

Economy 2023: Fed raises rates by more than 0.75 points?24%

Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%?29%

Will the fed balance sheet be over 8.5T$ on years end?50%

Chris Billington

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates in 2023?39%

What will the FED interest rate be on year end? (Times 5)23%

Will the RBA raise rates on the 4th July 2023?30%

Will the Fed stop-and-go?34%

Will the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing?20%