FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to "YES" if by September 30, 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meeting.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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@ZicoVerona funny how the author is quite active and even has a trustworthy badge, still, perhaps some other badge holders can help @MarcusAbramovitch @BoltonBailey @jack
@deagol Yes indeed. Though UTC is too early, In the absence of more specific criteria, it would make sense to assume US eastern time, since that's where FOMC meetings usually are. Though one could make a case that we should wait for Q3 to be over in Hawaii just in case the FOMC decide to have a meeting there at the last second. Or because even if they don't, it's still Q3 in the US somewhere.
These things occasionally matter for question resolution, and in fact it looks like the market creator did pick midnight in Hawaii as the market close time. So if there were disagreement about this, there would be a reasonably strong case that that is what they meant.
@chrisjbillington it’s more than 14.5h past Q3 in Hawaii, and over 12.5h if they were to hold a meeting in Baker Island (UTC-12 the latest possible).
This market closed yesterday at 5:59 PM EST, which was a minute before noon, not midnight, in Hawaii. So it closed 12h before Q3 ended in HI, or as the quarter ended in Central Europe (CEST=UTC+2), which would be the default time given by the interface if the user lived there.
@deagol Ah didn't realise there was any more US on the eastern side of the date line! I see Baker Island is in the "anywhere on earth" timezone, which is sometimes used for in market resolution criteria, as it's the last timezone to tick over to the next day.
But yes, this resolves NO, we're just waiting for @itsTomekK.
Futures are pricing-in a rate cut by the summer: https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1637738875073200128
