Will FED cut rates at their March 2024 meeting?
77
1K
แน€980
resolved Mar 21
Resolved
NO

FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to "YES" if in mentioned in the title scheduled meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meetings.

calendar of meetings

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The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

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@itsTomekK resolves NO, thanks.

bought แน€34 of YES

Im happy to cash out at 8%

bought แน€5 of YES

I'm buying yes, even if all statements from Fed, make it think rate cuts won't happen. Fed already has all possible evidence that inflation is on the right track and it just doesn't make any sense to keep rate hikes so high

For now, it looks like Manifold was right and real life markets were wrong.

predicted NO

@riverwalk3 I think one thing a lot of people don't appreciate about e.g. the CME Fedwatch data is that the volume on those futures is very low even a few months out; imo it's unsurprising for a >3 month Fedwatch prediction to be "wrong" (in the sense of - giving a plurality of the probability mass to the wrong option)

@draaglom Inflation surprised to the upside and unemployment also surprised to the downside. GDP was much hotter than expected.

A 110%. All you need to do is project 6m annualized just before March Fomc. My estimate is at 2.2%