What movie will win Oscar 2023 for Best Picture?
457
291
resolved Mar 13
0.4%
Avatar: The Way of Water
0.7%
Top Gun: Maverick
95%
Everything Everywhere All at Once
0.6%
The Fabelmans
0.1%
Babylon
0.1%
Women Talking
0.1%
Blonde
0.0%
Morbius
0.9%
The Banshees of Inisherin
0.1%
The Woman King
0.1%
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
0.2%
TÁR
0.1%
Triangle of Sadness
0.1%
She Said
0.1%
Poor Things
0.0%
Empire of Light
0.1%
Elvis
0.5%
All Quiet on the Western Front
0.4%
The Whale
0.0%
RRR

This question will resolve to the title of a movie, which wins 95th Academy Award (Oscar) for Best Picture.

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Close date updated to 2023-03-13 6:04 pm

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Used admin powers to resolve given creator absence to prevent DPM pot-raiding.

@SG i was just about to resolve!

"Closing date for Free Response Markets

  • Free response markets use a different system, therefore it is important that the market is set to close before a clear resolution is known. Otherwise, users who bet early could be disadvantaged compared to the more informed bettors."

--Manifold FAQ

@ForrestTaylor This guy again, dude you are obsessed. Users who bet early are always disadvantage compared to more informed bettors. 🤦

@Mirek With regular markets, other people coming in at the last minute don't reduce the payout of early bettors who got it right. Something about the mechanics of multi-option markets do have that effect.

@Mirek I'm not obsessed, this can just be a learning experience for newer market creators. I certainly didn't know when I made my first free response market. Just spreading info

bought Ṁ1,000 of Everything Everywher...

@itsTomekK You should resolve this market as soon as possible, people holding EEAAO are losing their winnings to the parimutuel mechanism.

I feel a little bad to take mana off of the people who thought that their payout odds would be the percentage they saw on the screen when they bought in, but I guess if this is how manifold chooses to structure their multi-choice markets, then it's fair game.

sold Ṁ115 of Women Talking

@BoltonBailey I don't think @itsTomekK is even online, he hasn't resolved any of his markets

Yeah, he's Polish and it's 5 AM there

sold Ṁ2 of The Fabelmans

@ForrestTaylor Yeah, very unfortunate, especially in light of the fact that we knew when this market was going to resolve. When that's the case you're supposed to close the parimutuel just before.

For reference, my first bet on this market was to pay M$44 to move the EEAAO price from 36% to 48%, but the interface is now telling me that the price of these shares will be M$47, an implied price of 93%. I risked buying before nominations were even announced, when the market probability thought it was more likely than not that the proposition would fail, and now I will not even make ten percent increase on these shares, when I lost money on a few other shares I bought.

@BoltonBailey can someone explain or link an explanation of the mechanism? I didn't bet in this marked, but I'd like to understand it

This is made worse by the fact that @itsTomekK apparently changed the close date! Why did you do this?! From the comments below it used to be Feb 8th, which still doesn't make sense as it's after nominations, but would have been much better than this.

@robm You can read a bit more here and here.

Sorry to express my frustration here, Tomek is a trusted creator and I suspect that they did not realize the significance of changing the resolve date when they did so. IMO @ManifoldMarkets cannot change the mechanism for multi-choice markets soon enough.

@BoltonBailey Yeah this should have closed in advance. I risked 11,000M for nothing lol

sold Ṁ2,713 of Everything Everywher...

Hey nobody buy EEAO up please. Once I make my free tendies on the other markets, I'll rebuy everything I sold. I just needed a quick loan 🤣

Bansheebros I don't feel so good

bought Ṁ10 of The Banshees of Inis...

@BrendanFinan I have seen 7 of the 10 nominees and Banshees is the best one of them (which means it won't win, but I yote 10 Mana at this anyway)

@AlQuinn Considering the winners are picked by a bunch of artsy losers who don’t even watch the whole movie, it’s usually the most popular that wins (while still being reasonably artsy)

It’s actually free for EEAAO

bought Ṁ5 of Triangle of Sadness

@Gen FWIW the one member of the voting Academy I knew was not an artsy loser but a crotchety former CIA agent, but yes, in general I think they vote based on what they want to signal.

I bought some Women Talking (because why not? It's a 650:1 shot!) but that movie is terrible and I think the only reason it's on the list is for ideological reasons. It's interesting that during the women's deliberation on what to do, the token man taking notes for them is at one point asked for his opinion and he says "it's not my place" and then later, he dares to voice an opinion and gets browbeat for it. That guy also has a crush on a woman pregnant with a rapist's baby and he asks to marry her, but of course she declines him. At another point, the status of 13 and 14 year old boys is discussed and it is concluded that they are dangerous beasts as well. The only postpubescent male who is safe is evidently an incel who takes notes, keeps his head down, and opinions to himself. Kind of explains why the evolutionary equilibrium includes rape, but of course, that was not the point at all!

that is an intensely weird way to sum up the movie, but whatever

@GeorgeTaylor ty for this. After playing it I now think that Colm was justified

bought Ṁ5,000 of Everything Everywher...

EEAO buyers in

Gigachad strongman flexing rich
bought Ṁ2,720 of Everything Everywher...

Betting odds drastically reduced. Usually once it’s less than $1.10 that means results were leaked. I’m in for 10k cost basis, joiners will be rewarded with a fulfilling afterlife (if I’m somehow wrong)

Best of luck, glad I have a reason to watch this garbage this year.

@Gen I don’t think the results were leaked (voting isn’t even open yet…)

EEAAO has just been dominating the guild awards.

@HoraceHe >thinks voting matters

Checkmate