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https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/october-2023-will-bitcoin-hit-30000

October 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $30,000?

50% chance. If in October 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $30,000 or more, this will resolve YES [image]--- ➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎

Can resolve No

Current realised volatility is around 40% annualised. In the relevant period, i.e the next 26 days, that’s roughly 10% volatility. Returns are not forecastable but present volatility is at a good approximation for future vol. As realised vol is defined as the standard deviation of log returns, if we assume them normally distributed, then there is 68% probability that the compounded returns will fall within +/- 10% from current price and there is 95% prob that they will fall +/- 20% of current price. Interpolating, there is 13% (95%-68%)/2 that Bitcoin will fall between 28.6k and 31.2k by EoM, given our assumptions above and a correct volatility forecast.

@marcogiglio this is why I love manifold markets.

Why is this closing on the 8th? That doesn't match the title OR the description

@jonsimon fixed