If in September 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $30,000 or more, this will resolve YES
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 3 | Ṁ234 | |
| 4 | Ṁ175 | |
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Current realised volatility is around 40% annualised. In the relevant period, i.e the next 26 days, that’s roughly 10% volatility. Returns are not forecastable but present volatility is at a good approximation for future vol. As realised vol is defined as the standard deviation of log returns, if we assume them normally distributed, then there is 68% probability that the compounded returns will fall within +/- 10% from current price and there is 95% prob that they will fall +/- 20% of current price. Interpolating, there is 13% (95%-68%)/2 that Bitcoin will fall between 28.6k and 31.2k by EoM, given our assumptions above and a correct volatility forecast.