This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on US economy events, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:
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The deflation side needs explaining, there is no reason inflation will fall given societal collapse from peak oil. If they do something "cute" like remove fossil fuels from the inflation index that is still not enough.
Inflation is decided by planning departments at retail chains that calculate inventory versus demand. It is not decided by the market, it's just a math equation of revenue vs inventory levels. Because inventory is falling, price must go up. If they published these inventory levels it would be a purely mathematical prediction.
I am down about 500 from Jack's misresolved republic Bank market but the efforts to delay the financial collapse spur inflation.
@chrisjbillington just so show how fail inflation is, the walmart.com beef price grew 30% in about a year while the cpi fell. Were really betting on the ability of the government to hide inflation, not reality. The real world inflation is already at third world levels.