538: Will voters prefer Democrats over Republicans on Election Day?
8
14
200
resolved Nov 8
Resolved
NO

If the FiveThirtyEight graph titled "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" shows Democrats at a greater percentage of support than Republicans for the date of November 8, 2022, at check time, this market will resolve to "YES".

If the same graph shows Republicans at a greater percentage of support than Democrats for November 8, 2022, at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "NO".

If the same graph shows Democrats and Republicans at an equal percentage of support for the resolution date, this market will resolve to 50-50.


The resolution source for this market is the FiveThirtyEight "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" graph, with the "POLL TYPE" option set to "Generic ballot" and the "CYCLE" option set to "2022". The graph is presently located at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates this graph's figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ56
2Ṁ27
3Ṁ20
4Ṁ7
5Ṁ6
Sort by:

This is just about the generic ballot, is it not?

predicted NO

@LivInTheLookingGlass I guess it's the general adult population

@kolotom99 Sorry, let me clarify. They often have polling on "if there wasn't a name, it was just a generic candidate, which party would you prefer?". Would this stat be enough to count

More related questions