Will Tony Kulesa win the Presidential Medal of Freedom by EOY2069?
Will Tony Kulesa win the Presidential Medal of Freedom by EOY2069?
0
1002069
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Donald Trump win a Nobel Prize before 2030?
10% chance
Will Adam Marblestone win the Presidential Medal of Freedom by EOY2070?
50% chance
Will Stephen Wolfram win the Presidential Medal of Freedom by EOY2060?
37% chance
Will Peter Thiel receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom by EOY2060?
31% chance
Will Razib Khan recieve the Presidential Medal of Freedom by EOY2060?
43% chance
Who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom before 2026? [Free Response - Unlinked]
Will Stephen Hsu win the Medal of the Republic by EOY2050?
50% chance
Will any alumni of the University of Washington Robinson Center win the presidential medal of freedom by EOY2050?
50% chance
Will Michael Trazzi win the Legion d'Honneur by EOY2050?
24% chance
Will Tim Farkas win the Ehrenzeichen für Verdienste um die Republik Österreich by EOY 2060?
50% chance