Will April 2024 in Boston be one of the 20 warmest Avril's ever?
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resolved Oct 15
Resolved
NO

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Easy difficulty to resolve @mods

(assuming the typo is manifestly obvious)

@Quroe I'm assuming we are treating this as "warmest April". What's your suggested data source and resolution direction?

@EvanDaniel Paperboy's climate markets have traditionally used NOAA. I found the data for Suffolk County, the county Boston MA is in. I am on mobile at the moment, but I can comb through the dataset when I am next at a computer (since I would have to download the dataset). https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/lcd

@Quroe Sounds like a great approach, thanks for the help!

@EvanDaniel Holy hell, this took a while.

Resolves NO!


---

I downloaded all NOAA data from Suffolk County, which is data collected from BOSTON LOGAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, MA.

I took all hourly dry bulb temperature readings from each April on record since 1944. I averaged them all into a respective monthly average.

Using this method, April 2024 was not the hottest Bostonian April on record at 47.63 F. The record is from 1976 at 54.22 F.

It's possible that some hours or days of data collection may have been missed anywhere in the data set, and that could have skewed the data, but after spending hours trying to solve this ridiculous prediction market, I am not sifting through the data harder than I already have.

I'm satisfied with my result. I also picked up some new Excel-fu skills along the way.

I can post my Excel data and show my calculations upon request.

@Quroe Thank you for putting in the effort to get an accurate resolution, I greatly appreciate it!

@EvanDaniel For the pursuit of the truth.

Caught a mistake in how I reported. It's not the coldest. It's just not the hottest. I edited my report as such.

@Quroe What rank is it? We do need more than just "not hottest".

@EvanDaniel Ho boy. I was batching results by the decade. It shouldn't be too hard to collect that, but what rank would you make the cutoff at?

@Quroe Well question title is "20 ever" and that's obviously literally false if you go back enough eons... so I'm assuming it's "20 warmest on record".

@EvanDaniel Not sure how I missed the "20" in the title. Coming right up!

@EvanDaniel It is 49th hottest out of 81. NO was the correct resolution.

Is there any Avril warmer than Avril Lavigne?

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