Will I be demoted in leagues this season?
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,620 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,715 | |
| 3 | Ṁ955 | |
| 4 | Ṁ538 | |
| 5 | Ṁ518 |
@DavidChee this should be marked as non-predictive. if I'd got here before 30 minutes before close I would have pointed that out and bet no.
Edit: see below
@ShadowyZephyr how is this different from the many other league markets which are mostly predictive?
@SemioticRivalry e.g. this market has 240k 24h volume entirely because it's predictive. and clearly betters in both cases were betting with the understanding that it was predictive https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/who-will-place-1st-in-masters-leagu
I think making all league stuff nonpredictive would be a good idea for the future, but that should be clearly understood by all parties
@SemioticRivalry I see what you mean. At first what I was going to say was "It isn't any different, all the markets should be non-predictive" because I thought that leagues markets were SUPPOSED TO be. But looking at the non-predictive group description, there is no clear reason why these leagues markets should be non-predictive. But admins have marked some as such anyway.
So admins are being inconsistent once again. Either all should be predictive or all should be non-predictive. I think I'd lean towards all being predictive.
@Agh assuming her endgame is to swing this market to a profit when/if people disengage probably better to not push the % too high so theres less margin for her but you do you + I am clueless
@someguy2776 The endgame is a whale comes in here, dumps their mana, makes me win, and then it resolves yes bc of that.
@inerati The tricky part is, that they don't know when leagues are gonna end. So there could always come another bigger whale and flip it back around
