I had been mostly betting based on vibes whenever the whim struck me and was doing OK, but I had a wakeup call when I had a string of losses. I also noticed I had a lot of mana tied up in stuff that was taking a long time to resolve, and it turns out I get less dopamine that way. So I sold basically all my positions, sucking up a lot of losses, and now my strategy is just to bet on:
things that are resolving within a few days
that I think I have a 5% or better edge on (typically because the resolution is lagging events and/or the market isn't liquid enough to accurately reflect near-certainty).
This seems to be self-limiting; after a few days of looking regularly, I have only managed to tie up about 9000 M$, or 75% of my liquidity after the selloff, in this type of bet. But I think using only 75% of my bankroll on a better class of bets is probably a win for me.
On closing date, I will resolve this YES if and only if my total mana (including prize points, though I don't spend or convert these) has increased over the past month at a faster overall rate than from [start of my daily betting streak] to [beginning of my selloff]. I plan to update this description with a specific mana target this evening. After I have done so, I will consider myself free to bet.
My intention during that time is to follow the strategy sketched out above, but I make no commitments about what I will actually do; this bet is just about the mana outcome.
1,000
3.00I haven't come back to set a mana target because I want to factor out the streak mana, and that is slightly complicated.
I am sitting on like 60% of my net worth in mana right now because the DNC stuff paid out and there are no low-hanging fruit right now (unless I get heavily into sport betting or stock guessing).