https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/06/greece-one-year-on-from-the-pylos-shipwreck-the-coast-guards-role-must-be-investigated/

https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/12/14/greece-6-months-no-justice-pylos-shipwreck

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66154654

Greek coastguard ‘pressured’ disaster survivors to blame Egyptian men

New evidence further challenges the official version of last month’s deadly sinking.

Created a related market at

by when does it have to be “determined”? who “determines” it (e.g. must it be reported in the local news, a statement by the greek gov, etc)?

@saulmunn I don't remember why I picked Dec 14th 2024, if only to allow ample time for any investigations. I think a better phrasing would have been "will a Greek authority admit they lied [...] by [...]"? I don't think I can change it now, since it would change the probabilities too much.

In initial articles I remember mentions of an (European?) agency that would be investigating, but I can't find that claim again. In the mean time, there have been several media investigations, e.g. https://www.commondreams.org/news/greek-coast-guard-shipwreck. For the sake of this market, I think the claims of lying/cover-ups should be reported by multiple news outlets and I definitely want to wait for any "official" investigations' results, including the Greek one.

I'll only resolve this market before the resolution date if there is an official statement by a Greek authority admitting to lies/cover-ups or apologising for them.

Probe Suggests Greek Coast Guard Caused Deadly Migrant Shipwreck—and Tried to Cover It Up

The incident “demonstrates once again the inhumane and lethal nature of the European border regime,” said a research agency involved with the investigation.