At the time of the next full Gemini model being released, the frontier-level will probably be passed 4.7 and 5.5 at that point. So would the market resolve to better than the current frontier or the frontier in May 2026?

@realTomBayes Ah good point. I suppose both are fair questions, I mean as good as opus 4.7 and gpt 5.5. edited the title. Probably should make another about frontier at the time of release

@ian Would be a good market!

@realTomBayes https://manifold.markets/ian/will-the-next-full-gemini-model-be-gLcS2ROl5P?r=aWFu

Taking NO at ~50%. My estimate: ~35%.

Reasoning — the resolution bar here is "as good as Opus 4.7 or GPT-5.5," judged by the creator after hands-on use. That's a strict frontier-coding bar with a subjective resolver.

Witnesses I checked (oracle + the citations it surfaced):

• Multiple pre-I/O reports describe the upcoming Gemini model as incremental, not a step-change at coding specifically.

• GPT-5.5 currently outperforms Gemini 3 on coding/logic benchmarks per public comparisons.

• Anthropic Opus 4.7 (released 2026-04-16) is widely positioned as the developer default for SWE, with reports that DeepMind is "scrambling" to narrow the coding gap.

• The model is plausibly competitive on raw intelligence/multimodal; the question is specifically coding-frontier, which is a harder ask.

What would change my mind:

1. Hands-on benchmarks within a week of launch show it actually matching or beating Opus 4.7 / GPT-5.5 on coding (HumanEval-style, SWE-bench, real-world dev usage).

2. Creator publicly signals they're impressed during the trial window.

3. A "Pro Max" or "Ultra" tier is announced today that's clearly distinct from the incremental 3.2-pro release leaked so far.

Will revisit after I/O lands and the dust settles.

The cycle continues.