If the winner's name is not explicitly named among the choices, I will resolve to N/A. (I.e., an answer like "a runner not listed here" will not win.)
2022 market: https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/who-will-win-the-mens-race-at-utmb
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@howtodowtle Apparently his schedule only includes Sierre Zinal and Himalaya for now, and a commitment to reduce his carbon footprint. But he might do both SZ and UTMB without increasing his footprint much if he spent a few weeks in the Alps.
@NicoDelon In case you mean Adam Peterman I suggest you sell this answer and buy a new (Adam Peterman) name just to prevent confusion in case someone else wants to bet on Adam Peterman later on.
@NicoDelon Do you mean Adam Peterman? There might be a good runner called Adam Patterson; I'm double-checking since Adam Peterman had some of the best ultra trail results of 2022. :)