I'm thinking of an object in the world (that is publicly known, you could find references to it by searching on the internet, its not "the flower in the vase on the table in the living room of HMYS's grandmothers house" or anything silly like that). I'll allow up to 50 questions be asked and up to 50 guesses be made. Each account will be allowed to ask 2 YES/NO questions, and make 2 guesses. The markets resolves YES if anyone correctly guesses the object and NO if either all the guesses has been used up or 1 month passes without anyone guessing it correctly.
Extra info:
If the question doesn't have a YES/NO answer, or I don't know the YES/NO answer, I'll say pass, but this won't use up a question
Its a real conrete object, not an abstract object like "the number 23408522349" or an object thats well-known but mythical like "the one ring in LOTR".
Might be a historical object that doesn't exist anymore, like hitler or the library of Alexandria.
It might be an object that is technically abstract as long as it is concretely instantiated. Like books (the first Harry Potter book, Harry Potter and the Philosophers Stone)
People can ask clarifying questions if they think this is unclear and it won't count as questions being used up
If someone is doing some dumb nonsense, like making alts and asking 10 questions "does it weigh less than 1000 trillion tons?", "Does it weigh less than 999 trillion tons?", I'll not answer those questions (if it doesn't make sense and is obvious that is someone trying to get a NO resolution)
I'll update how many guesses and questions have been made somewhat regularly
Questions: 13/50
Guesses: 2/50
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ100 | |
| 2 | Ṁ73 | |
| 3 | Ṁ45 | |
| 4 | Ṁ23 | |
| 5 | Ṁ19 |
I have another guessing game running at the moment: Unfair chess. https://manifold.markets/KongoLandwalker/unfair-chess-against-commenters-wil?r=S29uZ29MYW5kd2Fsa2Vy
@hmys are you going to make a lot of such games and make visualizations of how those stats are affected by the rule changes/time/amount of traders/time of opening the market etc. ?
@KongoLandwalker I thought about making a few more markets that are harder (either by picking a more difficult object, relaxing rules, or tightening the number of questions people can ask). Visualizing the data seems cool, though you would need to do quite a lot of markets for that.
Is it Old Tjikko?
Edited this comment to remove a guess, before it was answered
1) Is it currently alive? (edit - disregard, see thread)
2) Is its current resting place in the Eastern Hemisphere?
@levifinkelstein Ahhh I didn’t see the “Is it dead” question. Ok.
1, redux) Is its world record in some physical dimension of size and shape (length, width, area, volume, etc)?
Does it hold a world record?
Does it figure in legends?
@hmys are you going to post a hash of the objects's name so we can verify you have one thing in mind ? You can add a salt so we cannot use it to identify the object directly.
I think this market, and at least future ones, should just not allow these questions, they are not interesting
@jacksonpolack Yeah I had the same thought. I’m not so interested in this iteration of the challenge but I like the concept. this one only works if people buy NO and bomb with bad questions/guesses
@Stralor yeah. This could be fully general. Just ask if the name is lexicographically larger then X, and use that to binary search for the correct answer. Makes the entire question pointless.