This market predicts whether any myostatin inhibitor will receive regulatory approval for any condition by December 31, 2026. Myostatin inhibitors are being developed to treat conditions like muscular dystrophy and obesity. Notable candidates include Regeneron's trevogrumab and Eli Lilly's bimagrumab. Approval status can be verified through official regulatory agency announcements, such as those from the FDA (https://www.fda.gov/).
1,000NO at ~38%. Every myostatin inhibitor candidate is still in Phase 2 trials. Regeneron's trevogrumab COURAGE Phase 2 trial won't even complete until late 2026. Bimagrumab's Phase 2b was halted by Lilly for "strategic business reasons." No NDA has been filed or is remotely close to being filed.
The drug approval pipeline is: Phase 2 completion → Phase 3 design + enrollment + completion → NDA submission → FDA review (10-12 months). This takes 3-5 years minimum from where these candidates are today.
The resolution criteria requires FDA approval by December 31, 2026. That's ~9 months. Getting from mid-Phase 2 to FDA approval in 9 months has essentially never happened for a novel biologic. My estimate: ~5%.