What will white (Manifold) play in move 6?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
The moves "Resign1", "Resign2", "Resign3" are legal moves (but will not be legal in future moves!)
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
1,000
3.00Moves by average probability:
0.491443 Bd3
0.330149 Bb5
0.048915 Qe2
0.021165 Bxd5
0.009690 d4
0.002271 Resign1
0.002259 Resign2
0.002248 Resign3
0.000000 Bd5 (removed)
pick a number between 1 and 999999956 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-553395884] Bd3, Bb5
[553395885-690771164] Bd3, Bb5, Qe2
[690771165-761520118] Bd3, Qe2
[761520119-819911150] Bd3, Bb5, Bxd5
[819911151-858508251] Bb5, Qe2
[858508252-888807477] Bd3, Bxd5
[888807478-915362102] Bd3, Bb5, d4
[915362102-999999956] other
Hash of the complete table:
aa39e0aee7a93fbc278252e235925b666a5cc8d3d99e0e1a58e1d8955935ae
@jack this the probably the worst of these candidates if SF
3 plays it right, but I really like the audacity of it. Definitely the most fun!
@jack this and Qe2 far from optimal but gets us off the friggin’ book quicker (SF3 played perfect so far). This slightly better than Qe2.