What will white (Manifold) play in move 24?
Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP
The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5 8. Bb5 exf3 9. Bxc6+ bxc6 10. Qxf3 Qd7 11. Qc3 f6 12. g4 Bxg4 13. Rxg4 h5 14. Re4 Qd5 15. Qf3 Rd8 16. d3 a6 17. b3 Qc5 18. Kd1 a5 19. Bb2 g6 20. Qxf6 Kd7 21. Rxe5 Qd6 22. Qxh8 Be7 23. Qg7 Rf8
market for previous move:
For each response, the average probability in the last four hours before close is measured. With 75% probability, two moves will be randomly drawn, with weight proportional to those market probabilities. With 25% probabilities, three moves will be randomly drawn in the same way. Then for each of the two or three candidate moves, a conditional market is created.
The score of each move will be determined by the average probability in the last 4 hours. The move with higher score will be chosen (and the corresponding condditional market will resolve to the score one move later. The other market(s) will resolve N/A).
More details here:
https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch
Any resign moves or draw offeers are not allowed in this move!
Invalid moves or duplicate moves will be removed from consideration.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ178 |
Moves by average probability:
0.519425 Rxe7+
0.214532 Qxe7+
0.080757 Re4
0.038505 Ke2
0.011401 Qg8
0.011401 Qf6
0.011401 Qxg6
0.011401 Qf7
0.011401 Qh8
pick a number between 1 and 999999940 (inclusive)
Outcomes by integer range:
[ 1-366927636] Rxe7+, Qxe7+
[366927637-497038540] Rxe7+, Re4
[497038541-593706580] Rxe7+, Qxe7+, Re4
[593706581-654780709] Rxe7+, Ke2
[654780710-698530231] Rxe7+, Qxe7+, Ke2
[698530232-736259717] Qxe7+, Re4
[736259718-754175224] Rxe7+, Qg8
[754175225-772090731] Rxe7+, Qf6
[772090732-790006238] Rxe7+, Qxg6
[790006239-807921745] Rxe7+, Qf7
[807921746-825837252] Rxe7+, Qh8
[825837253-843429009] Qxe7+, Ke2
[843429010-856017378] Rxe7+, Qxe7+, Qg8
[856017379-868605747] Rxe7+, Qxe7+, Qf6
[868605748-881194116] Rxe7+, Qxe7+, Qxg6
[881194117-893782485] Rxe7+, Qxe7+, Qf7
[893782486-906370854] Rxe7+, Qxe7+, Qh8
[906370854-999999940] other
Hash of the complete table:
4099020f289f1a6543481e787f1dba8ed898a8a27a5b645a077bdd0ad48fae2b
So I’m going to focus on this, even if ends up the same as the other (clears the board leaving us with the a1 rook), but with this one black’s king can’t try to escape to c8 as that results in a mate in 7 moves starting with Be5.
And we can beat any silly move in the conditional, and make some mana while at it (as opposed to last move with the two equivalent ones where there was zero opposition and thus near zero profits).