[Manifold Plays Chess 3] If we play 8. Bc4, what is the score after move 9?
Basic
10
Ṁ4168
resolved Mar 23
Resolved
N/A

Check the game here: https://lichess.org/GF9YULQP.

The game so far: 1. e4 e5 2. Bc4 Nf6 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nf3 Nxe4 5. Nxe4 d5 6. Bd3 dxe4 7. Rg1 Bf5

The other candidate moves are 8. g4 and 8. Bb5

The conditional markets for the other moves are here:



If the value (averaged over the last 4 hours before close) of this market is higher than in the other markets, then this market resolves PROB to the score after move 9. Otherwise, it resolves N/A. The score after move 9 is the value (averaged over the last 4 hours) of the conditional market of the winning move in move 9.

Note that when the game ends, the score will be 1.0 - #moves x 0.0004 if white wins, 0.5 - #moves x 0.0002 if its a draw, or 0.0 if we lose.

More details for the overall game here:

https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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predicted NO

Bb5: Average probability: 0.758468

Bc4: Average probability: 0.736854
g4: Average probability: 0.729556


Bb5 wins.

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