Resolves to PROB matching the number of moves made by white in Manifold Plays Chess 3 (or resolves to 100% when more than 100 moves are being made by white). A resign move does not count as a move for this.

See https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-white-win-in-manifold-plays-ch for more info on the game.

Note that I might change the rules if the game becomes very boring

or if I am concerned that funding the remainder of the game will become too expensive. In that case, I do not attempt to change the outcome of the game, but it might be shorter than initially expected.