Background. The collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between the NFL and the NFL Referees Association (NFLRA) expires May 31, 2026.

• As of 5/1/26, negotiations remain at an impasse over compensation, job structure, and accountability provisions.

• The league has begun onboarding and training replacement officials as a contingency.

• The last time the NFL used replacement officials during the regular season was 2012, when a lockout lasted through Week 3. That situation ended on September 26, 2012, after the infamous "Fail Mary" controversy in a Monday Night Football game accelerated a deal.

• The NFL also locked out officials in Week 1 of the 2001 season.

• First Game of Season: TBA @ Seattle Seahawks (Wed. Sept. 9, 8:20 PM ET)

Negotiation Context (as of 5/1/26). NFL/NFLRA negotiations have been ongoing since summer 2024, but remain far apart:

• The league has offered approximately 6.45% average annual raises over six years;

• The union is seeking increases in the range of 10%, plus structural protections the league wants to change (shorter probationary periods, more performance accountability, reduced seniority-based playoff assignments).

• The NFL has begun onboarding and training potential replacement officials, while simultaneously distributing 2026 season crew assignments to current NFLRA officials - running both tracks in parallel.

Definitions. For the purposes of this market:

• "NFLRA officials" (also: union officials, regular officials) means game officials who are current members of the NFL Referees Association and working under a CBA or authorized agreement between the NFLRA and the NFL.

• "Replacement officials" (also: non-union officials, non-NFLRA officials, scab refs) means any game officials who are not current NFLRA members working under such an agreement - regardless of their qualifications or background.

• "Game officials" means the on-field officiating crew assigned to work a regular season game. Replay officials operating from a centralized command center are excluded from this determination.

Resolution criteria.

The primary test is straightforward: Did any Week 1 regular season game use on-field replacement game officials?

• Resolves YES if any Week 1 game - is officiated by a crew that includes one or more replacement (non-NFLRA) officials.

• Resolves NO if all Week 1 games are officiated entirely by NFLRA officials.

Early resolution.

• If the NFL and NFLRA reach a ratified agreement well in advance of September 9 such that there is no reasonable doubt NFLRA officials will work Week 1, this market aims to resolve NO early.

• If a deal is reached very close to September 9, the market will wait to confirm which officials take the field.

Edge cases.

• Whether the work stoppage is technically a "lockout" (initiated by the league) or a "strike" (initiated by the union) is irrelevant - only the identity of the officials on the field matters.

• If a partial agreement results in NFLRA officials working some but not all Week 1 games, the market resolves YES (because at least one game used replacement officials).

• If the Week 1 schedule is altered, cancelled, or postponed for reasons unrelated to the officials dispute, resolution will be based on whatever games the NFL designates as Week 1.

• If no regular season games are played in 2026, the market resolves N/A.