Will Alexey Guzey have a new post/essay on his personal site in Q2 (April-June) 2022?
76%
chance
Jul 1
M$85 bet
Austin

Austin bought M$30 of YES9 days ago

Okay so by my count - out of 27 quarters since the first archive post, Alexey has missed 5, for a base rate of 22/27=81%
Austin

Austin bought M$30 of YES9 days ago

https://guzey.com/archive/ has had a post each quarter for the last 3 years in a row (and longer too, but counting 3 years seemed enough)