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MANIFOLD
Will the California Sunset Earrings be sold at, or above, their upper estimate of $12m at auction on 6 December, 2023?
4
Ṁ110Ṁ340
resolved Dec 6
Resolved
NO

The details of the auction are here. The California Sunset Earrings are lot 24.

This market will be resolved after the sale. The price referred to is the hammer price, i.e., it is exclusive of the buyer's premium that Christies charges buyers in addition to the hammer price. So, if the hammer price is below $12 million, or if this lot isn't sold, this market will resolve to no.

Note that the buyer's premium is quite significant. For example, for a hammer price of $12m, the estimated premium will be an additional $2.21m and the buyer will pay $14.21m.

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With about half an hour before the start of bidding, this lot has been removed from the list of goods for this sale. I've seen no explanation for this yet, and I'm provisionally assuming that it has been withdrawn from the sale. If this is the case, the market should resolve "no", in line with my resolution criteria, but I'll keep an eye on the auction to see if any official announcements regarding this lot are made before resolving this market.

predictedNO

@gupe An update: the lot has indeed been withdrawn. The criteria for a "no"-resolution has thus been met (the lot has not been sold at this auction) and I'm going to resolve this market.