James

Manifold Features

I've some ideas for evaluating whether you agree/disagree with a market, but  I suppose you could see where your biggest losses and gains were. It would be nice if we could track our calibration really easily though without bets but I'm not sure if that;s on our priority list!

I’d like to see have tools to help me bet better - look at my implied calibration, help me see what my biggest errors were

 Not yet, but we're thinking about it! (A Twitter bot is on our list of growth ideas.)

is there a way to make a bot I can call on twitter to automatically make a market?

i.e. you could create a draft and get feedback from others before you instantiate it

@NathanpmYoung re: cooling off period, that sounds interesting! I believe draft markets have been floated and perhaps that would be a good candidate for what you're talking about?

That's the proposal as far as I'm aware: private groups with private markets

Also private groups where all markets in that tag are private but visible to the group. I'd use that for personal markets

I'd also like some way of judging where I bet wrong and how I can learn and generally if I'm doing well or badly.

So any money is technically bet at the end of the cooling off period

How about a cooling off period where all money isn't really bet. I'd like to be able to set that for a week for any long term or complex market, so I get to get feedback on resolution criteria.

I'll put my money where my mouth is: https://manifold.markets/challenges/ian/will-manifold-have-private-markets/TsGKI87e

@NathanYoung absotootly! I predict that will be here within a month

I would like private markets that i can share amongst friends. If you can see the link you can bet 

@NathanYoung you can resolve to multiple answers! Does that option not suffice?

I wish I could resolve multiple categories correct in for instance, this market https://manifold.markets/NathanYoung/who-runs-qualy-the-lightbulb-qualyt#answer-6

Ahh I see! Yeah I want to revamp the bets tab asap. It could be SO much better

And yes, I'd love to be able to see a table of people's current positions

@ian I mean that currently if I hold NO and buy YES, it shows in bet history as buy YES, even though in effect it is a sell NO. I'd prefer if it showed it in a way that made it clear I was reducing my NO position as opposed to increasing my YES position.

also see the market we just added to this group to bet on them!

Please fill out this form to help us prioritise which of the problems we should solve first https://forms.gle/3xMHj4zEWXsYcs727

oh yes I do like the idea of showing peoples' total shares, I believe one previous idea was just show a table of who owns what

@jack we already label sales as selling NO, do you mean like highlight it in green to make it more obvious it's towards the YES position?

Kind of related, I have noticed that in the betting history, I tend to interpret "buy YES" and "sell NO" quite differently - the difference is whether it's increasing or reducing a position. Someone reducing a position might be doing so because they want to free up cash or reduce exposure, not just because they believe the probability should move in that direction.

It might be nice if the betting history relabelled "buy YES" to "sell NO" if in fact you have a NO position. And it would be nice if it showed us what the bettor's position was, e.g. "Bought M$10 of YES, probability 60% -> 65%, total YES shares 500 -> 520.

@NiclasKupper If you have YES, just put a limit buy order of NO and it's equivalent to a sell for YES.

@NathanYoung Profit isn't just how much money you have total. Tips and liquidity injection (including the M100 for creating a market) aren't counted as profit. Profit only counts betting gains/losses

The typing in in this chat is laggy on chrome

Once loans are I I would pay 5$ a month to the Geopolitics and EA groups

Imagine if people could subscribe financially to groups and then the group upvotes questions to receive subsidy from that liquity pool

I guess I think encouraging a substack "pay for markets in the area I'm interested in to exist model" feels good 

@Jack. Won't I lose money and hence my profit go down?

Suggestion: show how much total M$ I invested into a market (cost basis, not the current value) on the market and/or bets pages

Add liquidity doesn't hurt your profit record, does it?

I wish I could fund markets without it hurting my record. I'm sure this gets said lot. I just want "add liquidity". maybe a limit order feels right but it feels off

An interface to better link "related markets" might be nice. Putting them in the comments or market description is ok but could be improved. Having it automatically link back on the other side would be great.

@DavidChee Hm you do seem more outlierish as you make so many bets

I mean sure some people may view that as valuable. My ideal use case for notifications though would just to see information that is tagging me in some way. I bet on too many markets for fun that I could care less about receiving updates from and those I do care more about I can manually go check (or would probably leave a comment myself and subsequently receive notifications when that gets interacted with).

Curious to hear if other people are in the same boat as me or if I am an outlier?

from: https://manifold.markets/ian/poll-do-you-enjoy-using-notificatio#UEs0v2LATmC8jMuguX66

comments that received tips and comments from people you follow

comments can be valuable for markets that you're betting on

hm what if I only showed comments that got tips on markets that you're betting on

@ian since using notifications a lot more, one of my biggest frustrations is getting notifications for comments on every single market I bet on and it makes it hard to identify notifications where ppl are @'ing or replying to me. I think there should be a "even less" category (or why not just make it so all the options have checkboxes next to them and we can pick and choose).

E.g. you go to the "Get M$" page, and beyond just "pay Manifold USD", there's also a list of:
- "Refer a friend and get M$500 for each signup!"
- "Take this new user survey and get M$500!"
- "Introduce yourself in the #Welcome group and we'll tip you M$100!"
- etc

> Every game's token is earnable somehow even if you run out

Was chatting with @IngaWei about this actually - one thing we should figure out is how to make "get more mana without paying" more clear to new users!

Yeah, norms are very hard to grasp, there are still a lot of point I feel unsure about. I wish Manifold made it more common knowledge

On the same vein, it might be a good idea to have a public document describing general etiquette on what Is Not Done, and what is fine. It's often not too hard to think of ways to make money by being a bit scamy, but at the same time it's not disallowed and lots of people are doing it so it's increasingly prevalent? I feel like it would be good to be able to point someone to a doc/link if they aren't sure whether they should do something, and if they do it, being able to tell them clearly, "see here number 16 says what you did is bad, you should probably not do that again". Not hard rules in the sense that you're banned for not following them, mind you. But even unenforced rules are often followed

Every game's token is earnable somehow even if you run out

Yeah I think we're underestimating how weird and new and different manifold is. I can't think of an app that when you sign up it gives you a scarce token for free but that you then have to buy more of if you run out. No other popular app is like that so no one should really understand what's going on

@joy_void_joy I very much agree. Maybe this tutorial could be found in "More" so that it isn't restricted to new accounts.

@BionicD0LPH1N Especially explaining subsidies would be cool to understand, that was a point I was very confused about at first

suggestion: I showed a friend manifold, and she asked me a few questions about how it worked, what to do, etc. So it'd be cool to have something like a short skippable tutorial on the making of an account, that explains the very basics of betting on markets, limit orders, etc. And maybe a few important pieces of info, like the fact that people betting on your markets gives you M$5, which is a good incentive to create markets but not enough advertised IMO. 

I understand why you'd close it, but the fact I cannot join the group to add it to my notifications means it's pretty much useless in terms of using it to get notified of such changes

@Sinclair I just made an updates group that new users are added to for announcements like these https://manifold.markets/group/updates

You can now post images in market descriptions! For instance:
https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/you-can-now-post-images-in-market-d

Would also be cool to have one on AI or climate change or X topic, but might be harder to get good markets

Maybe the November 2022 elections (in the US)?

If we did that, which topic/issue do you think has a good chance of of going viral? 

Agreed! Instead of building it out as a platform, I'd try building one specific curated dashboard first, and seeing whether it gets popular.

Really awesome idea! I do think there's something special about collecting related markets onto one page that's shareable (with maybe a bit of explanatory text interspersed). A dashboard that people can come back to and keep checking.

Yeah! Very related, I linked to that in doc in my post

@FRCassarino Related idea: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Stories-45dfd5717a2c4b218ee1c80ea5c1debb

(warning: no proofreading, full of typos :D)

I came up with a possible one. I was writing it here but it got way too long, so I put it in notion instead: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Curated-Dashboards-d1c32416ffb9463d9bd642e37262492b


Hey! I've been thinking about Product Market Fit, and have been trying to come up with a story of how Manifold goes viral.

@NathanYoung interesting! I'm not sure we're at the stage where a per-market live chat makes sense yet (for that, I think you do need a lot of people online to get real-time chat feedback)

Though I reckon having chat in the app alongside the markets would get used (like a twitch stream)

Can you use one of those matrix services and have it crosspost between a whatsapp, discord and slack chat?

A lot of Manifold users live on Discord, but some don't. Some are Slack users, some stick to Messenger/Signal/Whatsapp -- but the common theme is that everyone's on Manifold itself 😛

I definitely agree that Discord is a much better product than Manifold chat atm in many ways (reactions, threading, typing indicators); but one of the questions I'm hoping that we can answer with this is "how important are those, vs just having the ability to talk to people at all"

> Also, I've asked about the etiquette of adding people to groups, but it didn't seem like anyone chimed in. I feel this would be a discussion worth having

I think the view of Groups here is that it's like a Messenger/texting group - if somebody knows you, they can spin up a new chat group and add you in. Or otherwise @mention you and catch your attention

@JoyVoid I also preferred Discord for this myself. 

Also, I've asked about the etiquette of adding people to groups, but it didn't seem like anyone chimed in. I feel this would be a discussion worth having

@wasabipesto
> 4. Yet another place to check for messages, a number which I have conscientiously been working to reduce

I feel this is one of my main gripe with respect to moving the feature discussion from discord to manifold

Oh there we go, hidden on the profile page

But not before I sheepishly re-enter the room and ask how to leave groups again

And with that I'll dip and request that we re-open the discord channels, see y'all over there

As it stands I do not see myself chatting in groups to any real extent, mainly because it has to beat the status quo of "every other chat platform available" and chatting is not what I'd consider one of Manifold's core competencies

You don't seem to get notifications from being in a group, so that could be worse (get forcefully added to a group then get spammed with messages)

Is there any benefit to actually being in a group versus it just being public? If I don't care about adding questions, chatting, etc

5. As for being added to groups, that is a thing that can only be done by me in most other apps, and this breaks that pattern/expectation

4. Yet another place to check for messages, a number which I have conscientiously been working to reduce

3. No native dark mode, which I like when reading lots of text

2. Chat doesn't have threading, reactions, channels, etc. that most standard chat apps have

1. Enter sends a message, just found that out

I'm not sure if you're asking about chat or groups addition, so I'll respond to both:

@wasabipesto oh no! Thanks for chiming in, what don't you like about it?

This is the first time I've been forcefully added to a group, not a fan

Hm interesting exploration @JamesGrugett! Reminds me a bit of the Facebook, Gmail, or Intercom-style popup windows

I feel it's too narrow to feel central and blends in too easilly. At least I don't particularly like it as on this picture

Here's what it looks like with chat on the side: https://ibb.co/MhTgPJ4

Really missing the ability to post pictures.

Maybe it would benefit from being a bit wider. Stephen also had the suggestion to make the chat the third pane on desktop, so it's always visible and not one of the tabs

I joined Manifold in August 2022 and have since been very active on the platform - I check Manifold most days, make loads of predictions, and have made 250+ markets (#36 on the creator leaderboard as of today!) 

I wanted to share a few suggestions for the team and community; they're not all very novel, so I wouldn't be surprised if many of them are already on the roadmap or are in development or have already been suggested by other users. 

Please take these suggestions with the caveat that I (obviously) absolutely love the product and am super impressed by the Manifold team with what you all have been able to create in such a short period of time with so few people. You all rock and I'm excited to potentially invite y'all and the platform users to a party in the Bay Area in 2023!

One theme of my suggestions is that, as the number of markets increases and the platform grows, it is increasingly easy for markets to "die" after initially passing through the notifications of your followers. I think the ability for traders to find / follow markets they are interested in and filter out the rest will be a key issue for Manifold to make progress on in 2023. 

Another theme is that I think groups are super important for Manifold in the long term. The right incentives need to be in place for groups, and I'm excited about the possibilities there. 

Greater Focus on Group Manager/Moderator ("GM&M) Capabilities/Structure

Option for Creators to Pin Markets on Profile

Ability to Create Markets Where Creator Cannot Bet

Native Functionality for Market Dashboards

Thank you to anyone that has read this far. Huge thanks to the Manifold team for creating a product where I feel motivated to actually write all this out. 

#	Name	Profit
1	S G	Ṁ5,429
2	James	Ṁ1,358
3	Marshall Polaris	Ṁ1,024
4	Gurkenglas	Ṁ1,018
5	wasabipesto	Ṁ952
6	Alex Lien	Ṁ930
7	Martin Randall	Ṁ725
8	Olivia	Ṁ636
9	Ian Philips	Ṁ511
10	Adrian	Ṁ480
11	hyperion	Ṁ446
12	Gigacasting	Ṁ415
13	Orpheus	Ṁ407
14	Matt P	Ṁ392
15	Scott Owens	Ṁ386
16	Edward Kmett	Ṁ362
17	Isaac King	Ṁ345
18	Forrest	Ṁ341
19	Juno	Ṁ338
20	Yev	Ṁ226
21	jamie	Ṁ221
22	N.C. Young	Ṁ220
23	Mr. B	Ṁ192
24	Conflux	Ṁ191
25	brp	Ṁ183
26	Tjaden Hess	Ṁ177
27	Milli	Ṁ175
28	Honourary	Ṁ162
29	Butidigress	Ṁ160
30	zoli	Ṁ160
31	Charlie	Ṁ150
32	Will Howard	Ṁ149
33	Michael Chen	Ṁ149
34	extent_of_foxes	Ṁ144
35	arae	Ṁ137
36	Michael Wheatley	Ṁ136
37	Alex Rockwell	Ṁ134
38	Donald	Ṁ123
39	Mira	Ṁ119
40	Em of the Night ☑️	Ṁ117
41	Gabrielle	Ṁ116
42	Katja Grace	Ṁ106
43	tigrennatenn	Ṁ104
44	Nathan	Ṁ102
45	bleebo	Ṁ102
46	A	Ṁ98
47	paleink	Ṁ97
48	Eli Lifland	Ṁ93
49	Boklam	Ṁ91
50	Predictor 🔥	Ṁ84

#	Name	Number of traders
1	Olivia	160
2	Olivia's Market Manager BotBot	158
3	SneakySly	157
4	Austin	157
5	Carson Gale	104
6	Gurkenglas	96
7	Jack	94
8	Yev	91
9	Jon Simon	84
10	N.C. Young	82
11	Martin Randall	57
12	Forrest	57
13	Lars Doucet	52
14	Andy Martin	48
15	DesTiny	47
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17	Sinclair Chen	43
18	Ian Philips	42
19	Matt P	37
20	Isaac King	36
21	tigrennatenn	34
22	Scott Lawrence	28
23	S G	27
24	Conflux	26
25	Dani Qin	25
26	enemel	24
27	Em of the Night ☑️	23
28	Ben	22
29	Orpheus	22
30	Matthew Barnett	22
31	Predictor 🔥	21
32	Bolton Bailey	19
33	VivaLaPanda	18
34	Gigacasting	18
35	Lifejacker	18
36	Daniel Reeves	17
37	Enopoletus Harding	17
38	Tamuz Hod	15
39	Alex Wilson	15
40	Undox	14
41	Lachlan Munro	14
42	L	14
43	Reality Quotient	13
44	Alex	12
45	Honourary	12
46	James	12
47	Nathan Young	11
48	Franklin Baldo	11
49	BTE	10
50	TANSTAAFL	10

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