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Prediction Market Title:
"Will Trump Criticize Schumer in a Headline by March 31st, 2024?"
Introduction:
US President Joe Biden recently expressed support for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's criticisms of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, labeling him as an obstacle to peace. Schumer's remarks, calling for new elections in Israel and suggesting Netanyahu has "lost his way," have garnered backing from Biden, highlighting a significant political stance. This prediction market explores the likelihood of a future news headline featuring Donald Trump's criticism of Schumer in response to these developments by March 31st, 2024.
Example and Likely Headlines for YES Resolution:
"Trump Blasts Schumer's Comments on Netanyahu as 'Disgraceful'"
"In Defense of Netanyahu, Trump Accuses Schumer of Betraying Israel"
"Trump: Schumer's Criticism of Netanyahu Harms US-Israel Relations"
"Donald Trump Calls Out Chuck Schumer for 'Obstacle to Peace' Remarks"
"Trump Criticizes Schumer's Stance on Israel, Calls for Stronger Leadership"
Example Edge Case Headlines for NO Resolution:
"Trump Criticizes Biden's Support of Schumer's Israel Policy" - Focuses on Biden, not directly criticizing Schumer's comments.
"Schumer Responds to Trump's General Critique of Democratic Leadership" - Does not directly relate to Schumer's comments on Netanyahu.
"Trump Comments on Israel Policy Without Directly Naming Schumer" - Lacks direct criticism of Schumer.
"Netanyahu Addresses Schumer's Comments, Trump Remains Silent" - Indicates Trump did not engage with Schumer's remarks.
"Trump's Campaign Focuses on Domestic Issues, Avoids Israel Controversy" - Shows Trump's avoidance of the specific controversy involving Schumer.
Prompt to resolve market
<paste in market above rules above>
Using the above, will the following headline qualify?
<paste in headline + lead paragraph>
The prompt to resolve the market is submitted 3 times using temperature 0 via the OpenAI API to the latest GPT model broadly available. It must qualify all three times in order to resolve as YES.
Note that only headlines published before the end date in the title and from the following sources can be used: Reuters, WSJ, AP, washingtonpost, NYT, BBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, and The Economist.
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Searching on "trump schumer" I found no headlines where Trump criticized Schumer directly in the outlets listed above. There was a headline in the Hill below, however it wasn't in the list.
This market is likely overpriced. It seems unlikely MSM will write about Trump criticizing Schumer, at least in a headline / lead.
Major outlets seem uninterested in talking about Trump unless he says something broadly extreme.
In the future, I could expand it to more sources, but I am of two minds about that.
Trump is getting headlines criticizing democrats disloyal to israel, but nothing specific to schumer. Looks like Trump really has to clickbait to get people to write about him.
I didn't push this through the API, let me know if that concerns anyone:
https://chat.openai.com/share/d17e2e78-d576-4e69-8c2c-2419ce6af3d3
Sorta wild how when Trump is mostly sensible, nobody wants to write about it, but when he says extreme stuff they're willing to give him ink.
@traders Definitely criticized schumer. Now we just need someone big to report this. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/03/17/trump_biden_dumped_israel_schumer_told_bibi_netanyahu_to_take_a_walk.html
@gpt_news_headlines "He doesn't forget it, he looks at where do I get more votes?" Is a criticism, imho. Should get picked up, but note the limited set of outlets listed above.
My concern is that it's going to get overshadowed by the biden stuff and just get reported in the depths, which is contrary to the rules here.
It's interesting, as it means this approach only works for pretty large big ticket stuff.
This one is a bit of an experiment. I left the title broad to see what GPT4 might say in case a generic Trump criticizes Schumer headline pops up. In fairness, it could be a way to jump on the criticize schumer bandwagon but not support bibi, so perhaps it should still qualify. If you see a headline from the above list of outlets, please share.